IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bcr/ensayo/v1y2023i82p128-158.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Latin America in the global financial cycle: Vulnerability or resilience? An analysis of the Argentine case

Author

Listed:
  • Agustín Cucchiaro

    (University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)

Abstract

This work investigates the effects of an increase of the federal funds rate in the United States could generate on Latin American economies, taking as given the existence of a global financial cycle. This cycle is represented by a comovement between different financial variables at the international level. After carrying out an empirical analysis of gross capital flows for different countries, a VAR model is implemented for Argentina in order to compute Impulse-Response functions. The model results indicate that credit and terms of trade respond significantly to VIX impulses. The empirical analysis, together with the model results, show the important extent to which peripheral economies are vulnerable to the global financial cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Agustín Cucchiaro, 2023. "Latin America in the global financial cycle: Vulnerability or resilience? An analysis of the Argentine case," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(82), pages 128-158, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2023:i:82:p:128-158
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcra.gob.ar/Institucional/DescargaPDF/DownloadPDF.aspx?Id=1123
    File Function: Spanish version (versión en Español)
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
    2. Madhusudan Mohanty, 2014. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets - An overview," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 1-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Nuno Coimbra & Hélène Rey, 2018. "Financial Cycles and Credit Growth across Countries," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 509-512, May.
    4. Hélène Rey, 2016. "International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 6-35, May.
    5. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Elod Takáts & Abraham Vela, 2014. "International monetary policy transmission," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 25-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    8. Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Funding Flows and Credit in Carry Trade Economies," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Matthew Lilley & Mark Manning (ed.),Liquidity and Funding Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 721-745.
    10. Claudio BORIO & Piti DISYATAT, 2010. "Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Reassessing the Role of International Finance," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 198-216, December.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14524 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Schoenmaker, Dirk, 2011. "The financial trilemma," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 57-59, April.
    13. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2015. "Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously," BIS Working Papers 525, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Carrera, Jorge & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Toledo, Fernando, 2023. "Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 179-190.
    15. Miguel Angel Pesce, 2008. "Capital flows, economic performance and economic policy: Argentina’s experience during the last decade," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 89-101, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Dash, Pradyumna, 2019. "Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-288.
    2. Giovanni Ricco & Riccardo Degasperi & Seokki S. Hong, 2020. "The Global Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Papers 814, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    3. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    4. Christoph Kaufmann, 2023. "Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 593-636.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Coman, Andra, 2023. "Monetary policy spillovers and the role of prudential policies in the European Union," Working Paper Series 2854, European Central Bank.
    7. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Ouerk, Salima, 2023. "ECB unconventional monetary policy and volatile bank flows: Spillover effects on emerging market economies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 175-211.
    10. Ligonniere, Samuel, 2018. "Trilemma, dilemma and global players," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 20-39.
    11. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Guo, Shen, 2019. "Macro-prudential policies, the global financial cycle and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 147-167.
    12. Lu, Dong & Liu, Jialin & Zhou, Hang, 2022. "Global financial conditions, capital flows and the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2017. "Global Financial Cycle, Household Credit, and Macroprudential Policies," Working Papers 1006, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Karsten Kohler, 2020. "Gross capital flows and the balance-of-payments: a balance sheet perspective," Working Papers PKWP2019, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    16. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.
    17. Erdal Özmen & Fatma Taşdemir, 2019. "Globalisation And Governance: Thresholds For The Impacts Of The Main Determinants Of Capital Inflows?," ERC Working Papers 1902, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Mar 2019.
    18. Gießler, Stefan, 2020. "The evolution of monetary policy in Latin American economies: Responsiveness to inflation under different degrees of credibility," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    20. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy, 2023. "Risk, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices in a Global World," CEPR Discussion Papers 18229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion effects of monetary policy; financial stability; global financial cycle; VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcr:ensayo:v:1:y:2023:i:82:p:128-158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federico Grillo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bcraaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.