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Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Weekly Foreign Exchange Rates

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  • M. Shibley Sadique

    ()
    (Department of Finance & Banking, University of Rajshahi, BANGLADESH)

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    Abstract

    This study investigates the presence of neglected nonlinearity in weekly exchange rates of five countries in terms of Australian dollar. Three prominent nonlinear models from the ARCH family, such as the EGARCH, GARCH-M and EGARCH-M are fitted to the first differenced log of exchange rate series. The logs of the squared standardized residuals from the fitted models are tested for any leftover nonlinear structure using the BDS test. The nature of the leftover nonlinear dependence is identified using the Odd Product Moment Test of Hsieh (1991). Overall, the empirical evidence obtained in this study support the claim that the ARCH-type models cannot capture all the nonlinearities in financial asset returns.

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    File URL: http://www.bapress.ca/Journal-3/Testing%20for%20Neglected%20Nonlinearity%20in%20Weekly%20Foreign%20Exchange%20Rates.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Better Advances Press, Canada in its journal Review of Economics & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2011)
    Issue (Month): (June)
    Pages: 77-88

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    Handle: RePEc:bap:journl:110306

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    Related research

    Keywords: Neglected nonlinearity; ARCH-type models; Exchange rates;

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    1. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    2. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA.
    3. Hsieh, David A., 1992. "A nonlinear stochastic rational expectations model of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 235-250, June.
    4. Liu, T & Granger, C W J & Heller, W P, 1992. "Using the Correlation Exponent to Decide whether an Economic Series is Chaotic," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S25-39, Suppl. De.
    5. Angelos Kanas, 1997. "Nonlinear dependence in British pound exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(10), pages 631-633.
    6. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Roley, V. Vance & Sellon, Gordon H., 2000. "The effect of monetary policy actions on exchange rates under interest-rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 601-631, October.
    7. Hsieh, David A, 1991. " Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-77, December.
    8. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1997. "Uncovering Nonlinear Structure in Real-Time Stock-Market Indexes: The S&P 500, the DAX, the Nikkei 225, and the FTSE-100," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, January.
    9. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July.
    10. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    11. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Real-Time Equity Market Indices: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 864-80, July.
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