IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bal/journl/2256-07422022821.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact Of Buy €“ Sell Recommendations On Banks’ Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Mustafa Kevser

    (Bandırma Onyedi Eylül University, Turkey)

  • Mesut DoÄŸan

    (Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey)

  • AyÅŸenur TarakçioÄŸlu Altinay

    (UÅŸak University, Turkey)

Abstract

The aim of this research was to investigate the impact of stock buy-sell recommendations of brokerage houses on the stock returns of banks operating in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). Accordingly, it has been attempted to assess if investors can receive abnormal returns in accordance with the recommendations of brokerage houses using the case study technique. The validity of the semi-strong effective form of investors who made a buying-selling decision based on brokerage house recommendations was investigated. The returns of the banks' stocks were obtained from the data-stream database. The study evaluated buy-sell recommendations for four large brokerage houses and analyzed data from January 2018 through December 2020. The event study method was used, and t-test was performed in order to determine the difference of abnormal returns from zero in the research. As a result of the research, a negative abnormal return was determined on the day of the event and the day after the sell recommendation was given. Besides, a positive abnormal return was determined on the day before the announcement and on the day of the event in the bank stocks on which buy recommendation has been given. In this respect, the average abnormal and cumulative abnormal returns indicated that BIST was not an efficient market in a semi-strong form for the banking sector. When the sell recommendations and their effects are examined within the scope of the research, it is seen that the day before [-1] p=0.016 value was obtained, on the day, [0] p=0.018 value was obtained, the next day and two days later [+1, +2] p=0.077 and 0.046 values were obtained. On the other hand, when the buy recommendations and their effects are examined, it is seen that the day before [-1] p=0.000 and on the day [0] p=0.098 values were obtained. T-test results and p values show that brokerage house recommendations are effective on stock returns in the BIST banking sector, and therefore BIST banking sector is effective in a weak form. The obtained results of the study were crucial for investors who invested in short-term stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Kevser & Mesut DoÄŸan & AyÅŸenur TarakçioÄŸlu Altinay, 2022. "The Impact Of Buy €“ Sell Recommendations On Banks’ Stock Returns," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 8(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:bal:journl:2256-0742:2022:8:2:1
    DOI: 10.30525/2256-0742/2022-8-2-1-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.baltijapublishing.lv/index.php/issue/article/view/1742/1759
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.baltijapublishing.lv/index.php/issue/article/view/1742
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30525/2256-0742/2022-8-2-1-10?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    2. Tiniç, Murat & Tanyeri, Başak & Bodur, Mehmet, 2021. "Who to trust? Reactions to analyst recommendations of domestic versus foreign brokerage houses in a developing stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    3. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    4. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Berkman, Henk & Yang, Wanyi, 2019. "Country-level analyst recommendations and international stock market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-17.
    7. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2021. "The Correlation Between Stock Returns Before And After Analyst Recommendation Revisions," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 69-100, January –.
    8. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    9. Chen Su & Hanxiong Zhang & Kenbata Bangassa & Nathan Lael Joseph, 2019. "On the investment value of sell-side analyst recommendation revisions in the UK," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 257-293, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taufiq Choudhry & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2015. "Level of efficiency in the UK equity market: empirical study of the effects of the global financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, February.
    2. Michele Costola & Massimiliano Caporin, 2016. "Rational Learning For Risk-Averse Investors By Conditioning On Behavioral Choices," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Diniz, Eduardo H. & Rasheed, Abdul A., 2021. "Bitcoin’s price efficiency and safe haven properties during the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Ziliotto, Arianna & Serati, Massimiliano, 2015. "The semi-strong efficiency debate: In search of a new testing framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 412-438.
    5. Sheriffdeen A. Tella & Olumuyiwa G. Yinusa & Ayinde Taofeek Olusola & Saban Celik, 2011. "Global Economic Crisis And Stock Markets Efficiency: Evidence From Selected Africa Countries," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 139-169.
    6. Kin-Boon Tang & Shao-Jye Wong & Shih-Kuei Lin & Szu-Lang Liao, 2020. "Excess volatility and market efficiency in government bond markets: the ASEAN-5 context," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 154-165, March.
    7. Benhabib, Jess & Wang, Pengfei, 2015. "Private information and sunspots in sequential asset markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 558-584.
    8. Romain Bocher, 2022. "The Intersubjective Markets Hypothesis," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 34(1), pages 35-50, January.
    9. Roland Rothenstein, 2018. "Quantification of market efficiency based on informational-entropy," Papers 1812.02371, arXiv.org.
    10. Kamal, Mona, 2014. "Studying the Validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) after the 25th of January Revolution," MPRA Paper 54708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Elzbieta Kacperska & Jakub Kraciuk, 2021. "The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Stock Market of Agri-food Companies in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 3), pages 274-290.
    12. Pesaran, M.H., 2010. "Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1033, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Changing efficiency of BRICS currency markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1673-1699, August.
    14. Campos Dias de Sousa, Ricardo Emanuel & Howden, David, 2015. "The Efficient Market Conjecture," MPRA Paper 79792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Szafarz, Ariane, 2012. "Financial crises in efficient markets: How fundamentalists fuel volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 105-111.
    16. Shyam Sunder, 2015. "Risk in Accounting," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 51(4), pages 536-548, December.
    17. Rui F. Teixeira & Mara Madaleno & Elisabete S. Vieira, 2017. "Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 891-926, November.
    18. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
    19. Parthajit Kayal & Sayanti Mondal, 2020. "Speed of Price Adjustment in Indian Stock Market: A Paradox," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 453-476, December.
    20. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock markets; BIST; event study; efficient market hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bal:journl:2256-0742:2022:8:2:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anita Jankovska (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.