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Russia’s diversification prospects

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  • Ivan Lyubimov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

The Russian economy heavily relies on exports of its natural resources. However, the resource-based status quo does not seem to be the route towards Russia’s long-run prosperity. To improve its position in the global income ranking, Russia needs to diversify its exports and make them more complex. Using highly detailed data on trade flows and applying network theory apparatus, we evaluate the level of export complexity in Russia from 1995 to 2016 and compare it with that of its BRICS fellow members. We find that Russia is stagnant with respects to its relative level of export complexity. This sluggishness embraced the entire period between 1995 and 2016, much longer than the stage of anemic growth that started there a decade ago. We also conclude that the current stock of know-how in Russia is relatively low and fragmented, thus not letting Russia diversify into a broad range of more complex products. Russia might also need to export a wider variety of products to richer economies. Today, on a par with Brazil and South Africa, it supplies a broader range of goods to its slowly growing next-door neighbors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Lyubimov, 2019. "Russia’s diversification prospects," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(2), pages 177-198, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:arh:jrujec:v:5:y:2019:i:2:p:177-198
    DOI: 10.32609/j.ruje.5.34753
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    Cited by:

    1. Simola, Heli, 2020. "Climate change and the Russian economy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 11/2020, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Andrey Pushkarev & Natalia Davidson & Oleg Mariev & Nikita Luft, 0000. "Specialization of Russia in international trade: development in the changing international environment," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 11413244, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    3. Michael Alexeev & Andrey Chernyavskiy, 2019. "The impact of institutional quality on manufacturing sectors in Russia: panel data analysis," CAEPR Working Papers 2019-004, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    4. S. V. Zhukov & I. A. Kopytin & A. O. Maslennikov & M. V. Sinitsyn, 2023. "Oil Exporting Countries: Analysis of Economic Growth Opportunities Through Export Diversification in a Low-Carbon World," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 573-582, October.
    5. Alexeev, Michael & Chernyavskiy, Andrey, 2021. "The impact of institutional quality on manufacturing sectors: A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    export diversification; economic complexity; export destinations.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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