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The relationship between gun ownership and firearm homicide rates in the United States, 1981-2010

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  • Siegel, M.
  • Ross, C.S.
  • King III, C.

Abstract

Objectives. We examined the relationship between levels of household firearm ownership, as measured directly and by a proxy-the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm-and age-adjusted firearm homicide rates at the state level. Methods. We conducted a negative binomial regression analysis of panel data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database on gun ownership and firearm homicide rates across all 50 states during 1981 to 2010. We determined fixed effects for year, accounted for clustering within states with generalized estimating equations, and controlled for potential state-level confounders. Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%. Conclusions. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides. Copyright © 2013 by the American Public Health Association®.

Suggested Citation

  • Siegel, M. & Ross, C.S. & King III, C., 2013. "The relationship between gun ownership and firearm homicide rates in the United States, 1981-2010," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 103(11), pages 2098-2105.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2013.301409_0
    DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301409
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    Cited by:

    1. Adelaide Baronchelli & Raul Caruso, 2023. "Italian small arms exports: between incentives and international sanctions," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(3), pages 1075-1106, October.
    2. Christoph Koenig & David Schindler, 2023. "Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership, and Homicides: Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1271-1286, September.
    3. Koenig, Christoph & Schindler, David, 2018. "Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership and Homicides : Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock," Discussion Paper 2018-043, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Chalak, Karim & Kim, Daniel & Miller, Megan & Pepper, John, 2022. "Reexamining the evidence on gun ownership and homicide using proxy measures of ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Seiffert, Sebastian Daniel & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2016. "Gun Violence in the US: Correlates and Causes," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145946, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Matthew Lang, 2016. "State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 45-68, July.
    7. Christoph Koenig & David Schindler, 2018. "Dynamics in Gun Ownership and Crime - Evidence from the Aftermath of Sandy Hook," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 18/694, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    8. Crokidakis, Nuno, 2022. "Modeling the impact of civilian firearm ownership in the evolution of violent crimes," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).
    9. Hamlin, Daniel, 2021. "Are gun ownership rates and regulations associated with firearm incidents in American schools? A forty-year analysis (1980–2019)," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Adelaide Baronchelli & Raul Caruso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2022. "Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons: Are embargoes effective?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1336-1361, May.
    11. Kim, Dae-Young & Phillips, Scott W., 2021. "When COVID-19 and guns meet: A rise in shootings," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Nathan T. Dollar & Iliya Gutin & Elizabeth M. Lawrence & David B. Braudt & Samuel Fishman & Richard G. Rogers & Robert A. Hummer, 2020. "The persistent southern disadvantage in US early life mortality, 1965‒2014," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(11), pages 343-382.
    13. Pak, Tae-Young, 2022. "The effects of mass shootings on gun sales: Motivations, mechanisms, policies and regulations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1148-1164.
    14. Johnson, Blair T. & Sisti, Anthony & Bernstein, Mary & Chen, Kun & Hennessy, Emily A. & Acabchuk, Rebecca L. & Matos, Michaela, 2021. "Community-level factors and incidence of gun violence in the United States, 2014–2017," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    15. Pak, Tae-Young, 2022. "The Effects of Mass Shootings on Gun Sales: Motivations, Mechanisms, Policies and Regulations," MPRA Paper 115706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jessica Jumee Kim & Kenneth C. Wilbur, 2022. "Proxies for legal firearm prevalence," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 239-273, September.
    17. Laura H Gunn & Enrique ter Horst & Talar W Markossian & German Molina, 2018. "Online interest regarding violent attacks, gun control, and gun purchase: A causal analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, November.

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