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The effect of the 1995 heat wave in Chicago on all-cause and cause-specific mortality

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  • Kaiser, R.
  • Le Tertre, A.
  • Schwartz, J.
  • Gotway, C.A.
  • Daley, W.R.
  • Rubin, C.H.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: We sought to reexamine the effects of the 1995 Chicago heat wave on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including mortality displacement, using advanced time-series analysis methods. METHODS: We used Poisson regression with penalized regression splines to model excess mortality and mortality displacement over a 50-day period centered on the day in which the heat wave temperature peaked, adjusting for meteorological and other variables. We controlled for temporal trends by using daily mortality data during 1993-1997. We estimated relative risks (RRs) with reference to the first day of the 50-day period. RESULTS: We estimated that there were 692 excess deaths from June 21, 1995, to August 10, 1995; 26% of these deaths were owing to mortality displacement. RR for all-cause mortality on the day with peak mortality was 1.74 (95% confidence interval=1.67, 1.81). Risk of heat-related death was significantly higher among Blacks, and mortality displacement was substantially lower. CONCLUSIONS: The 1995 Chicago heat wave substantially effected all-cause and cause-specific mortality, but mortality displacement was limited. Mortality risks and displacement affected Blacks disproportionally. Appropriately targeted interventions may have a tangible effect on life expectancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiser, R. & Le Tertre, A. & Schwartz, J. & Gotway, C.A. & Daley, W.R. & Rubin, C.H., 2007. "The effect of the 1995 heat wave in Chicago on all-cause and cause-specific mortality," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(S1), pages 158-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:aph:ajpbhl:10.2105/ajph.2006.100081_6
    DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2006.100081
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    3. Nik, Vahid M. & Moazami, Amin, 2021. "Using collective intelligence to enhance demand flexibility and climate resilience in urban areas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    4. Sinha, Paramita & Coville, Robert C. & Hirabayashi, Satoshi & Lim, Brian & Endreny, Theodore A. & Nowak, David J., 2021. "Modeling lives saved from extreme heat by urban tree cover✰," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 449(C).
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    6. Scott Sheridan & Adam Kalkstein, 2010. "Seasonal variability in heat-related mortality across the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(2), pages 291-305, November.
    7. Anja Stotz & Kilian Rapp & Juha Oksa & Dawn A. Skelton & Nina Beyer & Jochen Klenk & Clemens Becker & Ulrich Lindemann, 2014. "Effect of a Brief Heat Exposure on Blood Pressure and Physical Performance of Older Women Living in the Community—A Pilot-Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
    9. Amruta Nori-Sarma & Tarik Benmarhnia & Ajit Rajiva & Gulrez Shah Azhar & Prakash Gupta & Mangesh S. Pednekar & Michelle L. Bell, 2019. "Advancing our Understanding of Heat Wave Criteria and Associated Health Impacts to Improve Heat Wave Alerts in Developing Country Settings," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-13, June.
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    11. John Nairn & Bertram Ostendorf & Peng Bi, 2018. "Performance of Excess Heat Factor Severity as a Global Heatwave Health Impact Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, November.
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    13. Jürgen Junk & Klaus Goergen & Andreas Krein, 2019. "Future Heat Waves in Different European Capitals Based on Climate Change Indicators," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-13, October.
    14. Ying Li & Cem Akkus & Xinhua Yu & Andrew Joyner & Jennifer Kmet & David Sweat & Chunrong Jia, 2019. "Heatwave Events and Mortality Outcomes in Memphis, Tennessee: Testing Effect Modification by Socioeconomic Status and Urbanicity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-14, November.
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    17. Kathryn C. Conlon & Kristina W. Kintziger & Meredith Jagger & Lydia Stefanova & Christopher K. Uejio & Charles Konrad, 2016. "Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, August.
    18. Thomas Longden, 2018. "Measuring temperature-related mortality using endogenously determined thresholds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 343-375, October.
    19. Sumi Hoshiko & Paul English & Daniel Smith & Roger Trent, 2010. "A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves, as applied to the 2006 California heat wave," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 55(2), pages 133-137, April.
    20. Camila I. Donatti & Celia A. Harvey & David Hole & Steven N. Panfil & Hanna Schurman, 2020. "Indicators to measure the climate change adaptation outcomes of ecosystem-based adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 413-433, February.

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