IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ahs/journl/v5y2020i3p893-912.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on The Stock Market in The Time of Covid-19: The Case of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Ali İlhan
  • Coşkun Akdeniz

Abstract

Along with the ongoing efforts to understand the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economies through various simulations and forecasts, the severe trauma experienced in financial markets has already manifested itself in market data. Besides the uncertainty created by the pandemic, fluctuations in macroeconomic variables have increased volatility in the developed and emerging stock markets. In this context, this study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on the BIST 100 index before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, the effects of interest rate, exchange rate, CDS premium, VIX, and oil prices on BIST 100 are estimated using the Flexible Least Squares method, which allows for the time-varying coefficient estimation, for the period of 13 September 2019 to 11 September 2020. Empirical findings indicate that interest rate, VIX, and oil prices had significant effects on BIST 100 for certain periods. On the other hand, the exchange rate and CDS premium significantly and negatively affect BIST 100 in the whole sample. Moreover, it is determined that the exchange rate is the macroeconomic variable with the highest impact on BIST 100 based on the quantitative magnitude of the coefficients.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali İlhan & Coşkun Akdeniz, 2020. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on The Stock Market in The Time of Covid-19: The Case of Turkey," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 5(3), pages 893-912.
    • Handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:5:y:2020:i:3:p:893-912
    DOI: 10.30784/epfad.810630
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/1345002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30784/epfad.810630?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    2. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Adrien Desroziers, 2020. "The stock market is not the economy? Insights from the Covid-19 crisis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03252106, HAL.
    3. Qing He & Junyi Liu & Sizhu Wang & Jishuang Yu, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on stock markets," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-288, July.
    4. Massomeh Hajilee & Omar Al Nasser, 2014. "Exchange rate volatility and stock market development in emerging economies," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 163-180.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kadir Tuna, 2022. "The Effects of Volatilities in Oil Price, Gold Price and VIX Index on Turkish BIST 100 Stock Index in Pandemic Period," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-1), pages 39-54, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali İlhan & Coşkun Akdeniz, 2021. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on The Stock Market in The Time of Covid-19: The Case of Turkey," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 5(3), pages 893-912.
    2. Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Sherif. M. Hassan & John M. Riveros Gavilanes, 2021. "First to React Is the Last to Forgive: Evidence from the Stock Market Impact of COVID 19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Zhang, Wenwen & Cao, Shuo & Zhang, Xuan & Qu, Xuefeng, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock market performance: Evidence from the RCEP countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 717-735.
    5. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Asima Saleem, 2022. "Action for Action: Mad COVID-19, Falling Markets and Rising Volatility of SAARC Region," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 33-54, February.
    7. Daan Steenkamp & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Rossouw van Jaarsveld & Roy Havemann, 2022. "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," Working Papers 876, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    8. Mala Raghavan & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Should ASEAN-5 monetary policy-makers act pre-emptively against stock market bubbles?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1086-1105, March.
    9. Tolga Aydin & Hakan Oner, 2020. "Comparative Analysis for the Relationship between Stock Performance and Macroeconomic Indicators: The Case of Turkey," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(3), pages 146-154, September.
    10. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
    12. Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & Masnun Mahi & Tapan Sarker & Md. Ruhul Amin, 2021. "Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
    13. Neifar, Malika, 2023. "Macroeconomic Factors and UK Stock Market: Evidence through the Non-Linear ARDL model," MPRA Paper 116298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Application of the IS-MP-IA model to the Singapore economy and policy implications," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(6), pages 1-9.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Javed Iqbal & Saqib Ullah Khan, 2017. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on the commodity trade between Pakistan and the US," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 161-187, May.
    16. Ismaila Akanni Yusuf & Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen & Hope Agbonrofo, 2021. "Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 3(3), pages 137-143.
    17. Orawan Ratanapakorn & Subhash C Sharma, 2002. "Interrelationships among regional stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 91-108.
    18. Liang, Chin-Chia & Lin, Jeng-Bau & Hsu, Hao-Cheng, 2013. "Reexamining the relationships between stock prices and exchange rates in ASEAN-5 using panel Granger causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 560-563.
    19. Ariffian, Suffian & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Which islamic equity market is the leading one in Southeast Asia ? evidence from some select equity markets," MPRA Paper 101873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Tampakoudis, Ioannis & Noulas, Athanasios & Kiosses, Nikolaos, 2022. "The market reaction to syndicated loan announcements before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and the role of corporate governance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BIST-100; COVID-19; Flexible Least Squares; Macroeconomic Variables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ahs:journl:v:5:y:2020:i:3:p:893-912. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ersan Ersoy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://epfjournal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.