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Short-Run Forecasting Models Of Beef Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Oliveira, Ronald A.
  • O'Connor, Carl W.
  • Smith, Gary W.

Abstract

This paper reports on the development of autoregressive-integrated-moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting models for selected cattle price series and the nearby live cattle futures price. The ARIMA models are fitted to weekly data by employing the Box-Jenkins time series modeling procedure. Relatively accurate short-run forecasts are obtained with the estimated models, with the Midwest price models performing better than Northwest price models, and the nearby futures model being considerably more accurate for longer forecasting horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliveira, Ronald A. & O'Connor, Carl W. & Smith, Gary W., 1979. "Short-Run Forecasting Models Of Beef Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32434
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32434
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald A. Oliveira & Gordon C. Rausser, 1977. "Daily Fluctuations in Campground Use: An Econometric Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(2), pages 283-293.
    2. Leuthold, Raymond M, 1972. "Random Walk and Price Trends: The Live Cattle Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 879-889, September.
    3. Helmers, Glenn A. & Held, Larry J., 1977. "Comparison Of Livestock Price Forecasting Using Simple Techniques, Forward Pricing And Outlook Information," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4, June.
    4. Larry Langemeier & Russell G. Thompson, 1967. "Demand, Supply, and Price Relationships for the Beef Sector, Post-World War II Period," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 49(1_Part_I), pages 169-183.
    5. Shlomo Reutlinger, 1966. "Short-Run Beef Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(4_Part_I), pages 909-919.
    6. Glenn Nelson & Thomas Spreen, 1978. "Monthly Steer and Heifer Supply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(1), pages 117-125.
    7. Dan M. Bechter & Jack L. Rutner, 1978. "Forecasting with statistical models and a case study of retail sales," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 63(Mar), pages 3-11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guney, Selin, 2015. "An evaluation of price forecasts of the cattle market under structural changes," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205109, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. James E. Epperson & Stanley M. Fletcher, 1985. "Tandem Forecasting of Price and Probability–The Case of Watermelon," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 33(3), pages 375-385, November.
    3. Holt, Matthew T. & Brandt, Jon A., 1984. "Price Forecasting and Hedging to Enhance Prices and Reduce Risk," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278988, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Cloman, Livia & Epperson, James E. & Fu, Tsu-Tan, 1987. "Simultaneous Forecasting Of Price Magnitude And Direction Using Two-Stage Ols-Probit," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 270145, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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