IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/v3(628)y2021i3(628)p157-168.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between exchange rates, foreign trade and economic growth: An application on Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Çiğdem ALIM

    (Sivas Cumhuriyet University, Sivas, Turkey)

  • Necati Alp ERILLI

    (Sivas Cumhuriyet University, Sivas, Turkey)

Abstract

The inevitable interaction of countries with each other in the globalizing world has made the relationship between foreign trade and exchange rate sizes important. Sustainable economic growth is important for countries to draw capital flows from abroad and for the continuity of investments. The present study investigates the relationship between exchange rate, foreign trade and economic growth in 2010-2019 period for Turkey. Level stability of series and the presence of unit roots were determined with ADF and PP unit root tests. Since there was a unit root problem in the level values of the variables, the first differences of the variables were examined. With ADF test, it was found that the most suitable model was up-to-date and stable. According to the results of Granger causality test, a one-way relationship was found from export to import and from exchange rate to import. No causality relationship was found between the other variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Çiğdem ALIM & Necati Alp ERILLI, 2021. "The relationship between exchange rates, foreign trade and economic growth: An application on Turkey," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(628), A), pages 157-168, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(628):y:2021:i:3(628):p:157-168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1562.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1562&rid=144
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Peter Wilson, 2001. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies—Does the J-Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 389-413, October.
    3. Chengang Wang & Yingqi Wei & Xiaming Liu, 2010. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 894-915, July.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bao, Ho Hoang Gia & Le, Hoang Phong, 2021. "ASEAN's trade balance with the whole EU-28 at industry level: The role of vehicle currency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "Is There J-Curve Effect In The Commodity Trade Of Singapore With Malaysia? An Empirical Study," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 567-591, June.
    3. Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Gauhar Rehman Panezai & Salahuddin, 2021. "Asymmetric cointegration, Non‐linear ARDL, and the J‐curve: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan and its trading partners," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2263-2278, April.
    4. Nahanga Verter & Věra Bečvářová, 2016. "The Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 691-700.
    5. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.
    6. Bakari, Sayef, 2016. "L’impact des Exportations Agricoles sur la Croissance Économique en Tunisie Durant la Période 1988 – 2014 [The Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia During the Period 1988 - ," MPRA Paper 80655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?," Working Papers halshs-00761380, HAL.
    8. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Khatoon, Rabeya & Rahman, Mohammad Mahbubur, 2009. "Assessing the Existence of the J?Cure Effect in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 32(2), pages 79-100, June.
    10. Akinboyo, Lawrence O. & Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Oladunni, Sunday & Owolabi, Olamide H., 2016. "External Reserves and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 98309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Muhammad Shakeel & M. Mazhar Iqbal & M. Tariq Majeed, 2014. "Energy Consumption, Trade and GDP: A Case Study of South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 461-476.
    12. Artatrana Ratha & Eungmin Kang, 2014. "Asian Financial Crisis And Korean Trade Dynamics," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 862-877, October.
    13. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman & Abdul, Farooq, 2012. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth in Australia:New Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 42023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2012.
    14. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2012. "J-Curve: Singapore versus her Major Trading Partners," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 31(4), pages 515-522, December.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:18:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Baek, Jungho, 2016. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 15-30.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2019. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: new evidence from Korean bilateral trade balance models with her 14 partners," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    19. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for the DR-CAFTA countries and policy implications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 293-301, September.
    20. Ayşen SİVRİKAYA & Serdar ONGAN, 2019. "BREXIT and the J-Curve Hypothesis for the UK: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(40).
    21. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:3(628):y:2021:i:3(628):p:157-168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marin Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.