Asymmetric Adjustments in Oil and Metals Markets
AbstractUsing the threshold cointegration methods, Enders-Siklos (2001) and Hansen-Seo (2002), this study finds that spot and futures prices in each of the four widely traded commodities, copper, gold, WTI oil and silver are asymmetrically co-integrated. However, the asymmetric adjustment to the long-run equilibrium differs among those commodities, reflecting different profitable opportunities. The adjustment is faster for copper after positive shocks, while it is faster for the safe havens oil, gold and silver after negative shocks. It is more the spot and not the futures price for the four commodities that focuses in its adjustment on long-run factors. In sum, the adjustments imply different trading strategies, depending on whether the faster adjustment happened from above or below the threshold.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.
Volume (Year): Volume 31 (2010)
Issue (Month): Number 4 ()
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- F0 - International Economics - - General
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- Chia-Lin Chang & Li-Hsueh Chen & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustments in the Ethanol and Grains Markets," Working Papers in Economics 10/78, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
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