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What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues

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  • John V. Duca
  • John Muellbauer
  • Anthony Murphy

Abstract

The role of real estate during the global financial and economic crisis has prompted efforts to better incorporate housing and financial channels into macro models, improve housing models, develop macroprudential tools, and reform the financial system. This article provides an overview of major, recent contributions to the literature in relation to earlier research on what drives housing prices and how they affect economic activity. Particularly emphasized are studies, both theoretical and more strongly evidence-based, that connect housing markets with credit markets, house price expectations, financial stability, and the wider economy. The literature reveals much diversity in the international and regional behavior of house prices and the need to improve data tracking key housing supply and demand influences. Also reviewed are studies examining how monetary, macroprudential, and other policies affect house prices and access to housing. This survey is designed to help readers navigate the plethora of recent studies and understand the unsettled issues and avenues for further research. The findings should be of interest to policy makers concerned with financial stability as well as those dealing with the role of housing in the wider economy.

Suggested Citation

  • John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2021. "What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 773-864, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:59:y:2021:i:3:p:773-864
    DOI: 10.1257/jel.20201325
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Dosi & Lucrezia Fanti & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2024. "Attributes and trends of rentified capitalism," LEM Papers Series 2024/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2022. "House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 313, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    3. Karsten Kohler & Benjamin Tippet & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "House price cycles, housing systems, and growth models," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 461-490, December.
    4. Guangyang Chen & Kai Dong & Shaonan Wang & Xiuli Du & Ronghua Zhou & Zhongwei Yang, 2022. "The Dynamic Relationship among Bank Credit, House Prices and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Frederik Schröder, 2023. "Linkages Between Property Prices and Macroeconomic Determinants: Evidence from Germany," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 17(2), pages 145-160.
    6. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix Julian, 2022. "House price expectations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117761, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    8. John Muellbauer, 2023. "Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it," Economics Series Working Papers 1010, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Claus Michelsen & Felix Weinhardt, 2022. "House Price Expectations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1994, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG, 2022. "Housing and Macroeconomics," ISER Discussion Paper 1197, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. IKM Mokhtarul Wadud & Omar H. M. N. Bashar & Huson Joher Ali Ahmed & William Dimovski, 2022. "Property price dynamics and asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty: New evidence from the Australian capital cities," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(4), pages 4359-4380, December.
    12. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Monetary tightening in the Euro Area: Implications for residential investment," Papers WP767, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Samuel Bowles & Wendy Carlin, 2021. "Shrinking capitalism: components of a new political economy paradigm [‘Environmental Preferences and Technological Choices: Is Market Competition Clean or Dirty?’]," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 794-810.
    14. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Michelsen, Claus & Weinhardt, Felix, 2022. "House Price Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 15040, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    16. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Claus Michelsen & Felix Weinhardt, 2022. "House Price Expectations," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1162, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    17. Federica Ciocchetta & Elisa Guglielminetti & Alessandro Mistretta, 2023. "What drives house prices in Europe?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Tran, My & Gannon, Brenda & Rose, Christiern, 2023. "The effect of housing wealth on older adults’ health care utilization: Evidence from fluctuations in the U.S. housing market," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Claus Michelsen & Felix Weinhardt, 2022. "House price expectations," CEP Discussion Papers dp1829, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    20. Tom Cusbert, 2023. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on Housing Prices: (Further) Evidence from a Survey Experiment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Francisco J. Lozano & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2021. "Prosperity or Real Estate Bubble? Exuberance Probability Index of Real Housing Prices in Chile," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-24, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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