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Flow Origins of Labor Force Participation Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Elsby
  • Bart Hobijn
  • Fatih Karahan
  • Gizem Koşar
  • Ayşegül Şahin

Abstract

We investigate the origins of cyclical and trend movements in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) using a three-state flow decomposition. The procyclicality of LFPR can be traced to cyclical flows between employment and unemployment. By contrast, labor force entry and exit explain virtually all of the trend movements. Among men, rising labor force exit rates account for two-thirds of the trend decline in male LFPR since the 1990s. For women, trend increases in female LFPR during the 1990s were dominated by declining exit rates, while the trend decline since the Great Recession can be traced to declining entry rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Fatih Karahan & Gizem Koşar & Ayşegül Şahin, 2019. "Flow Origins of Labor Force Participation Fluctuations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 461-464, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:109:y:2019:p:461-64
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191054
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
    2. Helu Jiang & Faisal Sohail, 2023. "Skill-Biased Entrepreneurial Decline," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 18-44, April.
    3. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Francesco D'Amuri & Marta De Philippis & Elisa Guglielminetti & Salvatore Lo Bello, 2021. "Natural unemployment and activity rates: flow-based determinants and implications for price dynamics," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Alexandre Ounnas, 2020. "Worker Flows, Occupations and the Dynamics of Unemployment and Labor Force Participation," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. Alexandre Ounnas, 2020. "Job Polarization and the Labor Market: A Worker Flow Analysis," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    7. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2021. "Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle," NBER Working Papers 29222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hassan Molana & Catia Montagna & George E. Onwordi, 2021. "De-Globalization, Welfare State Reforms and Labor Market Outcomes," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 624-655, December.
    9. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. ""Missing" Workers and "Missing" Jobs Since the Pandemic," Working Paper Series WP 2022-54, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Akiko Sakanishi, 2020. "Spatial analysis of female labor force participation rates in Japan," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 351-361, August.
    11. Akiko Sakanishi, 0. "Spatial analysis of female labor force participation rates in Japan," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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