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Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Gur Huberman
  • Tobias Konitzer
  • Masha Krupenkin
  • David Rothschild
  • Shawndra Hill

Abstract

Survey respondents who associate themselves with the "winning team" in an election, substantially increase their expectations for their stock market, but only modestly increase their expected household economic well-being. The impact of the election outcome on the "losing team" is comparatively muted. Yet, the dramatic shifts in survey responses from "winning team" respondents do not manifest themselves in their actual behavior as revealed by their online search behavior, in contrast to members of the "losing team," whose decline in durable goods purchases correlate with their stated economic expectations. Combining novel survey data and search, this study provides a uniquely meaningful comparison of stated attitudes with actual behaviors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gur Huberman & Tobias Konitzer & Masha Krupenkin & David Rothschild & Shawndra Hill, 2018. "Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around Elections," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 597-602, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:108:y:2018:p:597-602
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20181092
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maarten Meeuwis & Jonathan A. Parker & Antoinette Schoar & Duncan Simester, 2022. "Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3191-3247, December.
    2. Alexander Maas & Liang Lu, 2021. "Elections have Consequences: Partisan Politics may be Literally Killing Us," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 45-56, January.
    3. David Mitchell, 2023. "Covid-19 and the 2020 presidential election," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 188-209, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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