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Discrete Prices and the Incidence and Efficiency of Excise Taxes

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  • Christopher T. Conlon
  • Nirupama L. Rao

Abstract

This paper uses UPC-level data to examine the relationship between excise taxes, retail prices, and consumer welfare in the distilled spirits market. We document a nominal rigidity in retail prices that arises because firms largely choose prices that end in 99 cents and change prices in whole-dollar increments. A correctly specified model, like an ordered logit, takes this discreteness into account when predicting the effects of alternative taxes. Explicitly accounting for price points substantially impacts estimates of tax incidence and the excess burden cost of tax revenue. Meaningful nonmonotonicities in these quantities expand the potential considerations in setting excise taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher T. Conlon & Nirupama L. Rao, 2020. "Discrete Prices and the Incidence and Efficiency of Excise Taxes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 111-143, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:12:y:2020:i:4:p:111-43
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20160391
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    Cited by:

    1. Alisa Frey & Justus Haucap, 2024. "VAT pass-through: the case of a large and permanent reduction in the market for menstrual hygiene products," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 160-202, February.
    2. Henry Saffer & Markus Gehrsitz & Michael Grossman, 2022. "The Effects of Alcohol Excise Tax Increases by Drinking Level and by Income Level," NBER Working Papers 30097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Adachi, Takanori & Fabinger, Michal, 2022. "Pass-through, welfare, and incidence under imperfect competition," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Gehrsitz, Markus & Saffer, Henry & Grossman, Michael, 2021. "The effect of changes in alcohol tax differentials on alcohol consumption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    5. Brett Hollenbeck & Kosuke Uetake, 2021. "Taxation and market power in the legal marijuana industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(3), pages 559-595, September.
    6. Ellalee, Haider & Alali, Walid Y., 2022. "A Welfare and Pass-Through Effects of Regulations within Imperfect Competition," MPRA Paper 116512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fox, William F. & Hargaden, Enda Patrick & Luna, LeAnn, 2022. "Statutory incidence and sales tax compliance: Evidence from Wayfair," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    8. Dickson, Alex & Gehrsitz, Markus & Kemp, Jonathan, 2021. "Does a Spoonful of Sugar Levy Help the Calories Go Down? An Analysis of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy," IZA Discussion Papers 14528, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Nathan H. Miller & Gloria Sheu, 2021. "Quantitative Methods for Evaluating the Unilateral Effects of Mergers," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 58(1), pages 143-177, February.
    10. Carey, Colleen, 2021. "Sharing the burden of subsidization: Evidence on pass-through from a subsidy revision in Medicare Part D," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    11. Dickson, Alex & Gehrsitz, Markus & Kemp, Jonathan, 2022. "Does a Spoonful of Sugar Levy Help the Calories Go Down? An Analysis of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264048, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Øyvind Thomassen & Howard Smith & Stephan Seiler & Pasquale Schiraldi, 2017. "Multi-category Competition and Market Power: A Model of Supermarket Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2308-2351, August.
    13. repec:mcm:deptwp:2021-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Diwas KC & TI Tongil Kim & Jiayi Liu, 2022. "Electronic prescription monitoring and the opioid epidemic," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(11), pages 4057-4074, November.
    15. Bokhari, Farasat A.S. & Dobson, Paul W. & Morciano, Marcello & Suhrcke, Marc, 2023. "Banning volume discounts to curb excessive consumption: A cautionary tale," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    16. Bryan Bollinger & Steven E. Sexton, 2023. "Local excise taxes, sticky prices, and spillovers: evidence from Berkeley’s soda tax," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 281-331, June.
    17. Felix Montag & Alina Sagimuldina & Monika Schnitzer, 2021. "Does Tax Policy Work When Consumers Have Imperfect Price Information? Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9138, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

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