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What Are Stock Investors’ Actual Historical Returns? Evidence from Dollar-Weighted Returns

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  • Ilia D. Dichev
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    Abstract

    The existing literature typically does not differentiate between security returns and the returns of investors in these securities. This study clarifies that investor and security returns differ because of the timing and magnitude of investor capital flows into and out of these securities. The empirical results indicate that actual investor returns are systematically lower than buy-and-hold returns for nearly all major international stock markets. These results imply that the historical equity premium and the cost of equity capital are likely lower than previously thought. (JEL G11, G12, G15)

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 97 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 386-401

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    Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:97:y:2007:i:1:p:386-401

    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.97.1.386
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    1. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, 08.
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    4. James Claus, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    5. Brian J. Henderson & Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "World Markets for Raising New Capital," NBER Working Papers 10225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 2006. "Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1605-1643, 08.
    7. Paul A. Gompers & Josh Lerner, 2001. "The Really Long-Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings: The Pre-NASDAQ Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ivo Welch, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm122, Yale School of Management.
    9. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
    2. Chalmers, John & Kaul, Aditya & Phillips, Blake, 2013. "The wisdom of crowds: Mutual fund investors’ aggregate asset allocation decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3318-3333.
    3. Keswani, Aneel & Stolin, David, 2008. "Dollar-weighted returns to stock investors: A new look at the evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 228-235, December.
    4. Dichev, Ilia D. & Yu, Gwen, 2011. "Higher risk, lower returns: What hedge fund investors really earn," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 248-263, May.
    5. Zhang, Yuzhao, 2014. "Contrarian flows, consumption and expected stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-111.
    6. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2012. "Rational and behavioral motives to trade: Evidence from reinvestment of dividends and tender offer proceeds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2366-2378.
    7. Ciccotello, Conrad & Greene, Jason & Ling, Leng & Rakowski, David, 2011. "Capacity and factor timing effects in active portfoliomanagement," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 277-300, May.

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