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Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World

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  • Shoumitro Chatterjee
  • Tom Vogl

Abstract

Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with long-run growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Shoumitro Chatterjee & Tom Vogl, 2018. "Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1440-1467, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:108:y:2018:i:6:p:1440-67
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20170748
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Working Papers 2019-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Yuzuru Kumon & Mohamed Saleh, 2023. "The Middle‐Eastern marriage pattern? Malthusian dynamics in nineteenth‐century Egypt," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1231-1258, November.
    4. Lucia Corno & Nicole Hildebrandt & Alessandra Voena, 2020. "Age of Marriage, Weather Shocks, and the Direction of Marriage Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 879-915, May.
    5. Hong Liu & Lili Liu & Fei Wang, 2023. "Housing wealth and fertility: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 359-395, January.
    6. Pauline Rossi & Mathilde Godard, 2022. "The Old-Age Security Motive for Fertility: Evidence from the Extension of Social Pensions in Namibia," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 488-518, November.
    7. Jonathan J. ADAMS, 2022. "Urbanization, Long-run Growth, and the Demographic Transition," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(1), pages 31-37, March.
    8. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. Francisco Gallego & Jeanne Lafortune, 2023. "Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 295-320, January.
    10. Berniell, Inés & Berniell, Lucila & Mata, Dolores de la & Edo, María & Marchionni, Mariana, 2021. "Gender gaps in labor informality: The motherhood effect," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Jakob Madsen & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Testing unified growth theory: Technological progress and the child quantity‐quality tradeoff," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 235-275, January.
    12. Battaglia, Marianna & Chabé-Ferret, Bastien & Lebedinski, Lara, 2021. "Segregation, fertility, and son preference: the case of the Roma in Serbia," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 233-260, June.
    13. Guillaume Blanc, 2020. "Demographic Change and Development from Crowdsourced Genealogies in Early Modern Europe," Working Papers hal-02922398, HAL.
    14. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Kim, Minkyong, 2023. "Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Bick, Alexander & Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola & Lagakos, David & Tsujiyama, Hitoshi, 2022. "Structural change in labor supply and cross-country differences in hours worked," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 68-85.
    16. Jianing Pang & Fangyi Jiao & Yimeng Zhang, 2022. "An Analysis of the Impact of the Digital Economy on High-Quality Economic Development in China—A Study Based on the Effects of Supply and Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.
    17. Huang, Kaixing, 2018. "Secular Fertility Declines Hinder Long-Run Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 106977, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Apr 2021.
    18. Giray Gozgor & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Peter Rangazas, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Fertility," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages 373-399.
    19. Shampa Bhattacharjee & Aparajita Dasgupta, 2022. "Disease Eradication, Infant Mortality, and Fertility Response: Evidence from Malaria Eradication in India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 2444-2459, December.
    20. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    21. Canning, David & Mabeu, Marie Christelle & Pongou, Roland, 2020. "Colonial origins and fertility: can the market overcome history?," MPRA Paper 112496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Lüger, Tim, 2019. "The population question in a neoclassical growth model: A brief theory of production per capita," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 235, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    23. Luca GORI & Enrico LUPI & Piero MANFREDI & Mauro SODINI, 2020. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Development and the Demographic Transition: Fertility Reversal under the HIV Epidemic," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    24. Brehm, Margaret E. & Brehm, Paul A., 2022. "Drill, baby, drill: Natural resource shocks and fertility in Indonesia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    25. Aniema Atorudibo, 2021. "Marriage Norms and Fertility Outcomes in Developing Countries," Studies in Economics 2101, School of Economics, University of Kent.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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