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The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Günter Coenen & Carlos Montes‐Galdón & Frank Smets, 2023. "Effects of State‐Dependent Forward Guidance, Large‐Scale Asset Purchases, and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low‐Interest‐Rate Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 825-858, June.
  2. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : A speech at \"Fed Policy: A Shadow Review\" Cato Institute’s 37th Annual Monetary Conferenc," Speech 1104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
  4. Anthony J Evans, 2020. "The natural rate of interest: An estimate for the United Kingdom," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 24-35, February.
  5. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2022. "Global natural projections," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 949-990, November.
  6. Tomas Reichenbachas & Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas, 2021. "Natural real rates of interest across Euro area countries: Are R-stars getting closer together?," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 24, Bank of Lithuania.
  7. Veronika Grimm & Lukas Nöh & Volker Wieland, 2023. "Government bond rates and interest expenditure of large euro area member states: A scenario analysis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 286-303, December.
  8. Böhl, Gregor & Goy, Gavin & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "A structural investigation of quantitative easing," IMFS Working Paper Series 142, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  9. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech the 2019 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the Un," Speech 1038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Philippe Andrade & Jordi Gali & Herve Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2019. "The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(2 (Fall)), pages 173-255.
  11. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  12. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2020. "Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2443, European Central Bank.
  13. Lukasz Rachel & Lawrence H. Summers, 2019. "On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
  14. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  15. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : A speech at \"New England Perspectives on Fed Policymaking: A 'Fed Listens' Conference\" ho," Speech 1063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parrága, Susana & Carvalho,, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
  17. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2022. "Global Stagflation," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2204, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  18. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Christoffel, Kai & Faria, Thomas, 2021. "Assessing the fiscal-monetary policy mix in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2623, European Central Bank.
  19. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
  20. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Canofari, Paolo & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Messori, Marcello, 2023. "The ECB’s new inflation target from a short- and long-term perspective," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 286-304.
  21. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of reinvestments in asset purchase programmes," Discussion Papers 47/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  22. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
  23. Guido Bulligan & Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "De-anchored long-term inflation expectations in a low growth, low rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 624, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  24. Kai Arvai, 2021. "The Political Economy of Currency Unions," Working papers 850, Banque de France.
  25. van Riet Ad, 2019. "Twenty Years of European Central Bank Monetary Policy: A Keynesian and Austrian Perspective," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 797-840, October.
  26. Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Is the negative interest rate policy effective?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 75-86.
  27. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
  28. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "The implementation and the rationale of the new inflation target of the ECB," Working Papers in Public Economics 205, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
  29. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  30. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices, a speech at \"The Bank of Finland Conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU [Economic and M," Speech 1075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Debrun, Xavier & Masuch, Klaus & Ferrero, Guiseppe & Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Ferdinandusse, Marien & von Thadden, Leopold & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Alloza, Mario & Derouen, Chloé & Bańkowski, Krzyszto, 2021. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 273, European Central Bank.
  32. Pikhart Zdeněk & Froňková Pavla, 2019. "Estimating Natural Rate of Interest and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Case of the Czech Republic," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 231-248, December.
  33. Maria Sole Pagliari, 2021. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB's unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," Working papers 829, Banque de France.
  34. Susana Párraga & Pedro del Río & Juan Luis Vega, 2019. "The Federal Reserve review of its monetary policy framework," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.
  35. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
  36. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability : a speech at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, May 30, 2019," Speech 1067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
  38. Eleni Argiri & Ifigeneia Skotida, 2021. "The 2021 review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem: an economy of forces," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 54, pages 23-57, December.
  39. Andrey Sinyakov & Alexey Porshakov, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest for Russia: Is ‘Navigating by the Stars’ Useful?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(4), pages 3-47, December.
  40. Frank Smets, 2021. "Comment expliquer la faiblesse durable des taux directeurs dans la zone euro ?," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(4), pages 47-60.
  41. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  42. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2020. "Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1293, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  43. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : A speech at \"Fed Listens: A Capstone Roundtable\" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Ne," Speech 1062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  44. Alexandre Carvalho, 2023. "The euro area natural interest rate – Estimation and importance for monetary policy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  45. Martina Cecioni & Adriana Grasso & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2021. "Revisiting monetary policy objectives and strategies: international experience and challenges from the ELB," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 660, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  46. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 73-132, February.
  47. Inês da Cunha Cabral & Pedro Pires Ribeiro & João Nicolau, 2022. "Changes in inflation compensation and oil prices: short-term and long-term dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 581-603, February.
  48. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Domingues Semeano, João, 2020. "Interest rate-growth differentials on government debt: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2486, European Central Bank.
  49. Jerome H. Powell, 2019. "Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead : a speech at the 2019 SIEPR Economic Summit, Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, Stanford, California, March 8, 2019," Speech 1044, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  50. Papetti, Andrea, 2021. "Demographics and the natural real interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  51. Martínez-García, Enrique, 2021. "Get the lowdown: The international side of the fall in the U.S. natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  52. Bank for International Settlements, 2019. "Unconventional monetary policy tools: a cross-country analysis," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 63, december.
  53. Jair Ojeda-Joya, 2022. "A Counterfactual Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on the Natural Interest Rate," IHEID Working Papers 10-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  54. Dilian Vassilev, 2021. "A Model of Natural Interest Rate: The Case of Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 46-72.
  55. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Musso, Alberto & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Evolution of the ECB’s analytical framework," Occasional Paper Series 277, European Central Bank.
  56. van Riet Ad, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Unnatural Low Interest Rates: Secular Stagnation or Financial Repression?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(2), pages 99-135, August.
  57. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2018. "Real interest rates, exchange rates and the ZLB: on Secular Stagnation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-032/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 28 Oct 2018.
  58. Jan Priewe, 2020. "Why 60 and 3 percent? European debt and deficit rules - critique and alternatives," IMK Studies 66-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  59. Ansgar Rannenberg & Thomas Theobald, 2022. "Income inequality and the German export surplus," Working Paper Research 424, National Bank of Belgium.
  60. Busetti, Fabio & Neri, Stefano & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2021. "Monetary policy strategies in the New Normal: A model-based analysis for the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  61. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  62. Hongjin Li & Naifang Su, 2020. "Financial Factors, Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 76-100, July.
  63. Spahn, Peter, 2019. "Keynesian capital theory: Declining interest rates and persisting profits," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2019, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
  64. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
  65. Carla Soares & Nikolay Iskrev & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2021. "Indicators of monetary policy stance and financial conditions: an overview," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  66. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at the \"Fed Listens: Distributional Consequences of the Cycle and Monetary Policy\&quo," Speech 1054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  67. Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Url & Helmut Hofer & Viola Garstenauer, 2021. "A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM 2.0). New Results (2021)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67377, April.
  68. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
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