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Factor mimicking portfolios for climate risk

Author

Listed:
  • Gianluca De Nard
  • Robert F. Engle
  • Bryan Kelly

Abstract

We propose and implement a procedure to optimally hedge climate change risk. First, we construct climate risk indices through textual analysis of newspapers. Second, we present a new approach to compute factor mimicking portfolios to build climate risk hedge portfolios. The new mimicking portfolio approach is much more efficient than traditional sorting or maximum correlation approaches by taking into account new methodologies of estimating large-dimensional covariance matrices in short samples. In an extensive empirical out-of-sample performance test, we demonstrate the superior all-around performance delivering markedly higher and statistically significant alphas and betas with the climate risk indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca De Nard & Robert F. Engle & Bryan Kelly, 2023. "Factor mimicking portfolios for climate risk," ECON - Working Papers 429, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Mar 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:429
    as

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    File URL: https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/232244/7/econwp429.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2022. "The Power of (Non-)Linear Shrinking: A Review and Guide to Covariance Matrix Estimation [Design-Free Estimation of Variance Matrices]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 187-218.
    2. Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2017. "Nonlinear Shrinkage of the Covariance Matrix for Portfolio Selection: Markowitz Meets Goldilocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4349-4388.
    3. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel, 1987. "Mean-Variance Spanning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(4), pages 873-888, September.
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    6. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2021. "Sustainable investing in equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 550-571.
    7. Robert F Engle & Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Heebum Lee & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "Hedging Climate Change News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1184-1216.
    8. Beck, Elliot & De Nard, Gianluca & Wolf, Michael, 2023. "Improved inference in financial factor models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 364-379.
    9. Gianluca De Nard, 2022. "Oops! I Shrunk the Sample Covariance Matrix Again: Blockbuster Meets Shrinkage [Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 569-611.
    10. Merton, Robert C, 1987. "A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
    11. De Nard, Gianluca & Zhao, Zhao, 2023. "Using, taming or avoiding the factor zoo? A double-shrinkage estimator for covariance matrices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 23-35.
    12. Ledoit, Oliver & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Robust performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 850-859, December.
    13. De Nard, Gianluca & Engle, Robert F. & Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2022. "Large dynamic covariance matrices: Enhancements based on intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Robert F. Engle & Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2019. "Large Dynamic Covariance Matrices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 363-375, April.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    16. Gianluca De Nard & Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2021. "Factor Models for Portfolio Selection in Large Dimensions: The Good, the Better and the Ugly [Using Principal Component Analysis to Estimate a High Dimensional Factor Model with High-frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 236-257.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; factor model; portfolio selection; sustainable portfolio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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