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Desempleo, desajuste en el mercado laboral ('mismatch') e inflación: un modelo integrativo

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  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    Abstract

    Primero enseñaremos que la (nueva) curva de Phillips diseñada por la escuela del «Nuevo Keynesianismo» se puede transformar fácilmente en una curva de Phillips «clásica». Teniendo en cuenta el «mismatch» en los mercados laborales, como lo describe la curva de Beveridge y combinando esta última con la «nueva curva de Phillips» nos permite explicar la relación («output gap modificado») positiva entre la tasa de inflación por un lado y la cuota de vacantes por el otro. La existencia de un «output gap modificado» nos ayuda a entender no sólo el lema «clásico» de la inefectividad de la política macroeconómica I (en el sentido de R. E. Lucas), sino también otra segunda inefectividad (II), que surge del «mismatch» en el mercado laboral entre la demanda y la oferta de los perfiles de cualificación en los puestos de trabajo. El concepto del «output gap modificado» se obtiene, independientemente de las posibles variedades que puedan ofrecer tanto la curva de Phillips como la curva de Beveridge. Nuestra contribución consiste también en demostrar que la probabilidad de que los empleados en l' actualidad pierdan su puesto de trabajo, y, por el otro lado la probabilidad de que personas actualmente en paro consigan un nuevo puesto de trabajo son exclusivamene responsables de cualquier desplazamiento paralelo de la curva de Beveridge hacia el interior o hacia el exterior, lo que equivale a una ganancia/ una pérdida de eficiencia en la función mediadora del mercado de trabajo. Nuestro análisis concluye que solo una política estructural adecuada en el mercado laboral que acompaña a las medidas indispensables en el área macroeconómico a nos hará salir más potentes de la actual crisis mundial. -- In the first place, we will show that the (new) Phillips curve, designed by the school of the «New Keynesianism», can be transformed easily into a «classical» Phillips curve. Taking into account the existing mismatch in the labour markets, such as it is described by the Beveridge curve and combining the latter with the new Phillips curve, enables us to explain a positive relationship («modified output gap») between the rate of inflation on the one hand and the quota of vacancies on the other hand. The existence of a «modified output gap» gives us the possibility to understand not only the traditional paradigm of macroeconomic policy ineffectiveness I (in the sense of R. E. Lucas), but also a second sort of policy ineffectiveness (II), which origins in the «mismatch» prevailing in labour markets. Furthermore, the concept of the «modified output gap» is obtained independently of the possible varieties which either the Phillips curve and/or the Beveridge curve may possess. Our contribution also entails the prove that the probability of employees to lose their actual job and the probability for that persons unemployed in the present may achieve a new employment are the factors exclusively responsible for any parallel shift of the Beveridge curve inwards or outwards, which stands for a gain/loss of efficiency in the mediating function of the labour market. Our analysis concludes that only an adequate structural economic policy in the labour market which accompanies the indispensable policy instruments in the macroeconomic area will make us leave this ongoing worldwide economic crisis even stronger than we entered it.

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    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2010,2.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20102

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    Keywords: Mercado laboral; curvas Phillips y Beveridge; inefectividad política; output gap; Labour Market; Phillips and Beveridge curves; policy ineffectiveness; output gap;

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