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Die Weltwirtschaftskrise als Exempel der Überinvestitionstheorie: Komplementäre Erklärungsansätze von v. Hayek/Garrison und Minsky


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  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    In diesem Beitrag werden die Grundzüge der Überinvestitionstheorien von Hyman Minsky auf der einen und die von v. Hayek/Garrison auf der anderen Seite zunächst in den 'Sprachen' der Originalbeiträge herausgearbeitet. Anschließend wird ihr möglicher Erklärungsbeitrag für die aktuelle Finanzmarkt- und Weltwirtschaftskrise geprüft. So lässt sich das gleichzeitige Auftreten von Überkapazitäten - in Verbindung mit einer von den Präferenzen der Konsumenten deutlich abweichenden Kapitalstruktur - und einer Verschuldungskrise von Unternehmen und Banken befriedigend erklären. Während man nämlich mit v. Hayek/Garrison die Verwendungsseite des Kapitalstocks im Verlauf des Zyklus und die Fehlallokation von Kapitalgütern schon zu Beginn des Aufschwungs beleuchten kann, verhilft Minsky zu einem detaillierten Blick auf die Herkunftsseite des Kapitalstocks: Der Aufschwung, der sowohl technologisch wie monetär fundiert sein kann, legt durch riskante Fremdfinanzierung die Saat für die vergiftete Ernte in der Krise. -- In this paper, we first develop, making use of the original tools used in the seminal papers of Hyman Minsky on the one hand and of Friedrich A. v. Hayek/Roger Garrison on the other hand, the foundations of their overinvestment theories. Thereafter, we will investigate their possible contributions to the explanation of the actual financial market and worldwide economic crisis. We will demonstrate that a complementary use of both approaches enables us to understand the simultaneous existence of idle capacities - in combination with an allocation of capital goods which falls apart from consumer preferences - and of a severe debt crisis affecting both firms/households and commercial banks. While it is possible - with the help of v. Hayek/Garrison - to detect the usage side of the capital stock, its change during the cycle and the misallocation of capital goods which tends to happen already at the beginning of an economic upswing, it is Minsky who helps us to get a precise view on the financing side of the capital stock during the cycle: The upswing, which may be motivated by either new technological developments or by monetary expansion and more so the following boom goes along with too risky financing patterns which are then key factors for the explanation of the downswing and the following bust.

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    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2010,1.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20101

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    Keywords: Minsky; Weltwirtschaftskrise; Österreichische Schule; Minsky; Austrian School of Economics; World Economic Crisis;

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