IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/539.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Weather, the Forgotten Factor in Business Cycle Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Döhrn, Roland
  • an de Meulen, Philipp

Abstract

In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences on economic indicators. We find a significant influence of weather variables at least on a number of monthly indicators. Controlling for weather effects within these indicators should thus create opportunities to increase the accuracy of indicator-based forecasts. Focusing on quarterly GDP growth in Germany, we find that the accuracy of the RWI short term forecasting model improves but advances are small and not significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp, 2015. "Weather, the Forgotten Factor in Business Cycle Analyses," Ruhr Economic Papers 539, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:539
    DOI: 10.4419/86788617
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/106991/1/817332308.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4419/86788617?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhard, Heinz & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2016. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: In schwierigem Fahrwasser," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 67(1), pages 37-110.
    2. Roland Döhrn & György Barabas & Angela Fuest & Heinz Gebhardt & Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Svetlana Rujin & Lina Zwick, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Kräftige Expansion – nachlassender Schub im kommenden Jahr," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 65, 03.
    3. Schreiber, Sven, 2017. "Weather adjustment of economic output," Discussion Papers 2017/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. André Nunes Maranhão & Nicole Rennó Castro, 2023. "Dissecting Brazilian agriculture business cycles in high-dimensional and time-irregular span contexts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1543-1578, October.
    5. Schreiber, Sven, 2018. "Weather-induced Short-term Fluctuations of Economic Output," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181622, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Fuest, Angela & Gebhardt, Heinz & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Kräftige Expansion - nachlassender Schub im kommenden Jahr," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(1), pages 43-107.
    7. Erik Haustein & Sven Schreiber, 2016. "Adjusting production indices for varying weather effects," IMK Working Paper 171-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    weather; short term forecasting; bridge equations; forecast accuracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:539. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.