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Wirtschaftliche Effekte der europäischen Integration: Theoriebildung und empirische Forschung

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  • Ziltener, Patrick
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    Abstract

    In diesem Working Paper wird der Stand des Wissens über die Wirkungskanäle und wirtschaftlichen Effekte des europäischen Integrationsprozesses rekonstruiert, dieses wird einer kritischen Sichtung unterzogen, und es werden Schlussfolgerungen für die weitere Forschung und Theoriebildung gewonnen. Die empirischen Befunde aus fünfzig Jahren Integrationsforschung werden zusammengefasst und den politisch definierten Projekten wirtschaftlicher Integration sowie den jeweils vorherrschenden integrationstheoretischen Modellen und Simulationen gegenübergestellt. Der Nachweis wirtschaftlicher Effekte der europäischen Integration ist bisher nur für wenige Dimensionen und nur in wenigen Fällen überzeugend geführt worden. Relativ gesichert ist das Wissen über Handels- und Investitionseffekte. Darüber hinaus sind die von der ökonomischen Integrationstheorie postulierten Wirkungskanäle weitgehend nicht belegt, und es gibt eine Reihe von empirischen Evidenzen, die Zweifel an deren Validität aufkommen lassen. Fast vollständig vernachlässigt worden sind die Wirkungen politischer Steuerung, monetärer Transfers und Verteilungsfragen insgesamt. Weder ein einmaliger noch ein dauerhafter Wachstumseffekt der europäischen Integration kann als gesichert nachgewiesen betrachtet werden. Das üblicherweise mit dem Binnenmarkt-Projekt verbundene Bild eines Liberalisierungs-big-bang ist von der Wirkungsseite her eindeutig falsch. Die integrationstheoretischen Modellen und Simulationen haben einen Prozess suggeriert, wie er weder in Wirkungstiefe und -breite noch in Art der Dynamik stattgefunden hat. Das Gesamtbild, das sich abzeichnet, ist eines verschiedener sich überlappender, sich gegenseitig verstärkender oder konterkarierender integrationsinduzierter Prozesse und Strukturen, die unterschiedliche Nettoeffekte auf Wachstum und Konvergenz der beteiligten Länder hatten. -- What do we really know about the economic impact of European integration? This working paper reviews and critically analyzes the literature addressing this question and draws conclusions about where research and theoretical developments in this area can go in the future. The empirical findings of fifty years of research on European integration are summarized and contrasted with policymakers' plans for economic integration and with the theoretical models of integration and empirical simulations that have been at the forefront of scholarly debate over the years. European integration's economic impact has been convincingly proven only for a few particular aspects and in a few particular cases. The knowledge about its impact on trade and investments, for example, is based on relatively sound findings. However, there is little evidence supporting the channels of impact suggested by economic integration theory. In fact, there is evidence that casts doubt on the validity of traditional integration theory altogether. The effects of supranational intervention policies and of monetary transfers have been neglected almost entirely, as has the whole issue of the distribution of integration gains. There is no convincing empirical evidence of European integration having led to either short-term or sustained economic growth effects. A closer look at the impact of the European Single Market project shows that the widespread notion of a 'big bang' of liberalization is definitely inaccurate. Theoretical models and empirical simulations projected a process whose impact would be broad, deep, and dynamic, but its actual impact was not that great. What really happened? European integration has led to many overlapping processes and structures that either give each other momentum or impede each other, and whose net impact on growth and convergence has varied from country to country.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies in its series MPIfG Working Paper with number 01/7.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgw:017

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    Cited by:
    1. Krieger-Boden, Christiane, 2002. "European integration and the case for compensatory regional policy," ERSA conference papers ersa02p240, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Genschel, Philipp, 2003. "Die Globalisierung und der Wohlfahrtsstaat: Ein Literaturrückblick," MPIfG Working Paper 03/5, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

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