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Mögliche Auswirkungen eines harten oder weichen Brexit auf die deutsche Landwirtschaft - Update

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  • Banse, Martin
  • Freund, Florian

Abstract

Das Vereinigte Königreich (VK) stellt einen bedeutsamen Abnehmer für deutsche Agrarprodukte dar. Dies wird auch durch die hohen deutschen Nettoagrarexporte von 3,1 Mrd. € in 2016 deutlich. Damit ist das VK der Handelspartner, mit welchem Deutschland den mit Abstand größten Agrarhandelsüberschuss aufweist. Allein diese Fakten verdeutlichen bereits, dass die mit einem Brexit verbundene Einführung von wie auch immer gearteten Handelsbarrieren einen potenziell starken Einfluss auf die deutschen Agrarmärkte haben kann. In der folgenden Analyse werden mit einem 'weichen' und einem 'harten' Brexit zwei Szenarien mit unterschiedlich stark ausgeprägten Handelshemmnissen untersucht. Das 'weiche' Brexit Szenario beinhaltet ein tiefgreifendes Freihandelsabkommen zwischen der EU und dem VK, während das 'harte' Brexit Szenario mit der Einführung von MFN Zöllen eine stärker protektionistische Politik unterstellt. Die Modellergebnisse zeigen, dass bei einem 'weichen' Brexit mit einem Rückgang der deutschen Agrarproduktion in Höhe von 400 Mio. € zu rechnen ist. Dieser wertmäßige Rückgang würde bei einem 'harten' Brexit dreimal höher ausfallen.

Suggested Citation

  • Banse, Martin & Freund, Florian, 2018. "Mögliche Auswirkungen eines harten oder weichen Brexit auf die deutsche Landwirtschaft - Update," Thünen Working Papers 95, Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:95
    DOI: 10.3220/WP1524059623000
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre Boulanger & George Philippidis, 2015. "The End of a Romance? A Note on the Quantitative Impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 832-842, September.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Daniel Stöhlker, 2017. "Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy," EconPol Policy Reports 4, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Banse, Martin & Freund, Florian, 2017. "Mögliche Auswirkungen eines Brexit auf den deutschen Agrarhandel," Thünen Working Paper 256935, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries.
    4. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Agrarhandel; WTO; Freihandelsabkommen; agri-food trade; WTO; free trade agreement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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