Strategic capacity choice under uncertainty: the impact of market structure on investment and welfare
AbstractWe analyze a market game where firms choose capacities under uncertainty about future market conditions and make output choices after uncertainty has unraveled. We show existence and uniqueness of equilibrium under imperfect competition and establish that capacity choices by strategic firms are generally too low from a welfare point of view. We also demonstrate that strategic firms choose even lower capacities if they anticipate competitive spot market pricing (e.g. due to regulatory intervention). We finally illustrate how the model can be used to assess the impact of electricity market liberalization on total capacity and welfare by fitting it to the data of the German electricity market. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Quantitative Wirtschaftsforschung (IWQW) in its series IWQW Discussion Paper Series with number 01/2008.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Investment incentives; demand uncertainty; cost uncertainty; Cournot competition; First Best; Second Best; capacity obligations; spot market regulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
- L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
- D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Perfect Competition
- D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Monopoly
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
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- Gürkan, G. & Ozdemir, O. & smeers, Y., 2013. "Strategic Generation Capacity Choice under Demand Uncertainty: Analysis of Nash Equilibria in Electricity Markets," Discussion Paper 2013-044, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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