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Global economic–biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth

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  • Delzeit, Ruth
  • Klepper, Gernot
  • Zabel, Florian
  • Mauser, Wolfram

Abstract

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between −42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Delzeit, Ruth & Klepper, Gernot & Zabel, Florian & Mauser, Wolfram, 2018. "Global economic–biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 226014, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:226014
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9da2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Heimann, Tobias & Argueyrolles, Robin & Reinhardt, Manuel & Schuenemann, Franziska & Söder, Mareike & Delzeit, Ruth, 2024. "Phasing out palm and soy oil biodiesel in the EU: What is the benefit?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 281955, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Heimann, Tobias & Delzeit, Ruth, 2024. "Land for fish: Quantifying the connection between the aquaculture sector and agricultural markets," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 281986, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    4. Federal Reserve Bank Kansas City, 2018. "Agriculture in a Global Economy: 2018 Agricultural Symposium," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Special I, pages 1-96.
    5. Kan, Iddo & Reznik, Ami & Kaminski, Jonathan & Kimhi, Ayal, 2023. "The impacts of climate change on cropland allocation, crop production, output prices and social welfare in Israel: A structural econometric framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Delzeit, Ruth & Heimann, Tobias & Schünemann, Franziska & Söder, Mareike, 2021. "Scenarios for an impact assessment of global bioeconomy strategies: Results from a co-design process," Kiel Working Papers 2188, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Jutta Wieding & Jessica Stubenrauch & Felix Ekardt, 2020. "Human Rights and Precautionary Principle: Limits to Geoengineering, SRM, and IPCC Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-23, October.
    8. Delzeit, Ruth & Heimann, Tobias & Schünemann, Franziska & Söder, Mareike, 2021. "DART-BIO: A technical description," Kiel Working Papers 2195, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.
    10. Schneider, Julia M. & Zabel, Florian & Schünemann, Franziska & Delzeit, Ruth & Mauser, Wolfram, 2022. "Global cropland could be almost halved: Assessment of land saving potentials under different strategies and implications for agricultural markets," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 253265, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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