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Prognose und Prognosekorrektur für das Jahr 2019

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  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

In den vergangenen Quartalen haben wir unsere Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für das laufende Jahr deutlich reduziert. Während wir im Dezember noch von einer Zuwachsrate von 1,8 Prozent ausge-gangen waren, rechnen wir nun mit einem Anstieg um 0,3 Prozent. Diese Revision zwischen Winter- und Herbst-Prognose von 1,5 Prozentpunkten ist ungewöhnlich hoch; zwischen den Jahren 1993 und 2018 betrug sie absolut im Durchschnitt 0,8 Prozentpunkte. In dieser ausgeprägten Revision spiegelt sich auch wider, dass wirtschaftliche Schwächephasen nur recht schwer zu prognostizieren sind und die systemati-schen Prognosefehler für solche Phasen dementsprechend deutlich höher ausfallen. Auch unsere konjunkturelle Einschätzung haben wir seit dem vergangenen Winter ange-passt. Während wir damals vorerst mit einem Fortgang der Hochkonjunktur rechneten, hat offenbar bereits im vergangenen Jahr ein Abschwung eingesetzt.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannsen, Nils, 2019. "Prognose und Prognosekorrektur für das Jahr 2019," Kiel Insight 2019.11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jannsen, Nils, 2014. "Die Schwäche des Welthandels und Implikationen für die deutschen Exporte," Kiel Insight 2014.9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematische Prognosefehler in unterschiedlichen Konjunkturphasen," Kiel Insight 2017.15, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    4. Ademmer, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Mösle, Saskia, 2018. "Zum Einfluss des Niedrigwassers auf die Konjunktur," Kiel Insight 2018.17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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