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Prognosen des IfW und tatsächliche Entwicklung 2017

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  • Jannsen, Nils

Abstract

In unserer Frühjahrsprognose vom vergangenen Jahr haben wir den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktions-anstieg für das Jahr 2017 deutlich unterschätzt. Nach den ersten Schätzungen des Statistischen Bundes-amts stieg das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2017 um 2,2 Prozent; in unserer Prognose waren wir von einem Anstieg um 1,7 Prozent ausgegangen (Tabelle 1). Gleichwohl hat der kräftige Produktionsanstieg unsere konjunkturelle Einschätzung im Großen und Ganzen bestätigt, wonach das Bruttoinlandsprodukt deutlich stärker steigen würde als das Produktionspotenzial und die deutsche Wirtschaft allmählich in die Hochkonjunktur driftet.

Suggested Citation

  • Jannsen, Nils, 2018. "Prognosen des IfW und tatsächliche Entwicklung 2017," Kiel Insight 2018.2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    2. Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168206, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Jonas Dovern & Nils Jannsen, 2017. "Prognosen in verschiedenen Konjunkturphasen [Forecasts in Different Business Cycle States]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 97(7), pages 527-528, July.
    4. Carstensen, Kai & Wolters, Maik H., 2017. "Normaler Abschwung oder schwere Rezession? Ein neues Modell für die Prognose der Konjunkturphasen in Deutschland," Kiel Insight 2017.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
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    1. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft: Luftloch im konjunkturellen Höhenflug [German Economy Summer 2018 - German economy: Temporary slowdown, boom not over yet]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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