Validierung von Konzepten zur Messung des Marktrisikos: Insbesondere des Value at Risk und des Expected Shortfall
Abstract-- Market risk management is one of the key factors to success in managing financial institutions. Underestimated risk can have desastrous consequences for individual companies and even whole economies, not least as could be seen during the recent crises. Overestimated risk, on the other side, may have negative effects on a company's capital requirements. Companies as well as national authorities thus have a strong interest in developing market risk models that correctly quantify certain key figures such as Value at Risk or Expected Shortfall. This paper presents several state of the art methods to evaluate the adequacy of almost any given market risk model. Existing models are enhanced by in-depth analysis and simulations of statistical properties revealing some previously unknown effects, most notably inconsistent behaviour of alpha and beta errors. Furthermore, some new market risk validation models are introduced. In the end, a simulation with various market patterns demonstrates strenghts and weaknesses of each of the models presented under realistic conditions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Frankfurt School of Finance and Management in its series Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series with number 192.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Backtesting; Market Risk; Value at Risk; Expected Shortfall; Validation; Alpha Error; Beta Error; Time Until First Failure; Proportion of Failure; Traffic Light Approach; Magnitude of Loss Function; Markow-Test; Gauss-Test; Rosenblatt; Kuiper; Kolmogorov-Smirnov; Jarque-Bera; Regression; Likelihood Ratio; Truncated Distribution; Censored Distribution; Simulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
- C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-09-03 (Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2012-09-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-GER-2012-09-03 (German Papers)
- NEP-ORE-2012-09-03 (Operations Research)
- NEP-RMG-2012-09-03 (Risk Management)
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