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Prediction of 0-1-events for short- and long-memory time series

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  • Beran, Jan

Abstract

The problem of predicting 0-1-events is considered under general conditions, including stationary processes with short and long memory as well as processes with changing distribution patterns. Nonparametric estimates of the probability function and prediction intervals are obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Beran, Jan, 2002. "Prediction of 0-1-events for short- and long-memory time series," CoFE Discussion Papers 02/11, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cofedp:0211
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Peter & Hart, Jeffrey D., 1990. "Nonparametric regression with long-range dependence," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 339-351, December.
    2. Chiu, Shean-Tsong, 1989. "Bandwidth selection for kernel estimate with correlated noise," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 347-354, September.
    3. Beran, Jan & Ocker, Dirk, 1999. "SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates," CoFE Discussion Papers 99/13, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    4. Jan Beran & Yuanhua Feng, 2002. "Local Polynomial Fitting with Long-Memory, Short-Memory and Antipersistent Errors," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 54(2), pages 291-311, June.
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