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A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability

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Author Info
William N. Goetzmann () (Yale University, School of Management)
Matthew I. Spiegel () (School of Management)

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Abstract

This paper provides a method for estimating housing indicesat the local level. It develops a "distance-weightedrepeat-sale" procedure to exploit the factor structure ofthe error-covariance matrix in the repeat-sales model. Adistance function defined in characteristic andgeographical space provides weights for the generalizedleast-squares model, and allows the use all of the repeated-sales in a metropolitan area to measure returns for thespecific neighborhood of interest. We use distance-weightedrepeat-sales to estimate return indices for all zip codes inthe San Francisco Bay area over the period 1980 through1994. When distance is defined in terms of socio-economiccharacteristics, we find that median household income is thesalient variable explaining covariance of neighborhoodhousing returns. Racial composition and educationalattainment, while significant, are much less influential.Zip-code level indices often deviate dramatically from thecity-wide index, depending upon income levels. This hasimplications for investors and lenders. Our resultsindicate that rates of return may vary considerably within ametropolitan area. Thus, simply using broad metropolitanarea indices as a proxy for capital appreciation within aspecific neighborhood may not be justified.

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Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm64.

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Date of creation: 06 Jun 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm64

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R0 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General

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  1. Daniel P. McMillen, 2002. "The center restored: Chicago's residential price gradient reemerges," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  2. Scott Susin, 2006. "Rent Vouchers and the Price of Low-Income Housing," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series 1005, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hany Guirguis & Christos Giannikos & Randy Anderson, 2004. "The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Min Hwang & John Quigley, 2002. "Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1040, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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