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Business Cycles in South-East Europe from Independence to the end of the Cold War

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  • Matthias Morys
  • Martin Ivanov

Abstract

Based on a freshly built data set and relying on a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model, this paper constructs business cycle indices for five South-East European (SEE) countries (Austria(-Hungary), Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia) to address two questions: to what extent has there been a common SEE business cycle, and has there been synchronisation of business cycles with England, France and Germany? We find limited but increasing business cycle integration before World War I, both within SEE and vis-Ã -vis the core economies. The trend towards increasing levels of business cycle synchronisation accelerates in the interwar period and is not even interrupted by the arrival of the Great Depression. The onset of the Cold War almost completely extinguishes regional business cycle integration, but the reorientation of some communist countries towards the West (early on by Yugoslavia, from the mid-1970s also by Romania) also sees the re-emergence of a common business cycle vis-Ã -vis Austria and Germany. JEL classification:

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Paper provided by CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York in its series Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers with number 11/02.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:yor:cherry:11/02

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Keywords: South-East European business cycle; national historical accounts; common dynamic factor analysis;

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