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The Credibility of the United Kingdom's Commitment to the ERM : Intentions versus Actions

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  • Masson, Paul R

Abstract

The paper presents estimates of a model of the credibility of the U.K. commitment to its central parity against the deutsch mark during the period of ERM membership (1990-92). The measure of credibility used is the long term, interest differential with Germany. Credibility is decomposed into two aspects ; an assessment of whether the government was truly committed to the ERM, and the probability that even a committed government would be able to continue to bear the unemployment costs. Doubts about the first aspect which could lead to a self-fulfilling crises - are shown to have declined steadily during the period of ERM membership, while the second aspect is estimated to have become increasingly important, due to rising unemployment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 430.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:430

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Keywords: EMS ; monetary policy ; exchange rates;

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Cited by:
  1. Schor, Armand-Denis, 2000. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales : l’optimum, le praticable, le crédible et le réel," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 545-576, décembre.

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