Blackouts, risk, and fat-tailed distributions
AbstractWe analyze a 19-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts. Contrary to previously reported results we find a fatter than exponential decay in the distribution of inter- occurrence times and evidence of seasonal dependence in the number of events. Our findings question the use of self-organized criticality, and in particular the sandpile model, as a paradigm of blackout dynamics in power transmission systems. Hopefully, though, they will provide guidelines to more accurate models for evaluation of blackout risk.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Risk and Insurance with number 0510001.
Length: 5 pages
Date of creation: 08 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 5 , 3 . To appear in: H. Takayasu (ed.), Proceedings of the 3rd Nikkei Econophysics Symposium, Springer-Tokyo, 2005/2006
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blackout; risk; fat-tailed distribution; power grid;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-15 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Enrico Scalas & Rudolf Gorenflo & Francesco Mainardi & Maurizio Mantelli & Marco Raberto, 2003.
"Anomalous waiting times in high-frequency financial data,"
- Enrico Scalas & Rudolf Gorenflo & Hugh Luckock & Francesco Mainardi & Maurizio Mantelli & Marco Raberto, 2004. "Anomalous waiting times in high-frequency financial data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 695-702.
- Enrico Scalas & Rudolf Gorenflo & Hugh Luckock & Francesco Mainardi & Maurizio Mantelli & Marco Raberto, 2005. "Anomalous waiting times in high-frequency financial data," Papers physics/0505210, arXiv.org.
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