The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting
AbstractPeople are willing to pay heavily for expert advice. Economists are consulted to tell us how the economy will change, stock analysts are paid large salaries to forecast the earnings of various companies, and political experts command large fees to tell our leaders what the future holds. The available evidence, however, implies that this money is poorly spent. But because few people pay attention to this evidence, I have come up with what I call the 'seersucker theory': 'No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers.'
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0412009.
Length: 7 pages
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 7
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://220.127.116.11
seer-sucker theory; experts; forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- A - General Economics and Teaching
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-12 (All new papers)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Soon, Willie, 2007. "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit," MPRA Paper 6317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- JS Armstrong, 2005. "Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals," General Economics and Teaching 0502066, EconWPA.
- J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985)," General Economics and Teaching 0502021, EconWPA.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.