Assessing Forecast Performance in a VEC Model: An Empirical Examination
AbstractThis paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error-correction model (VECM) that is anchored by a long-run equilibrium relationship between Greek national income and productive public expenditure as suggested by the economic theory. We compare the estimated forecasting values of the endogenous variables to the real-historical values using a stochastic simulation analysis. The simulation results provide new evidence supporting the ability of the model to forecast not only one-period ahead but also many periods into the future. Keywords: Cointegration, Forecasting, Simulation Analysis, Vector error- correction models JEL Classifications: C15, C32, C53, E0, E6 Working Paper Series
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0502007.
Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 09 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 15
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Cointegration; Forecasting; Simulation Analysis; Vector error- correction models;
Other versions of this item:
- Zacharias Bragoudakis, 2005. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a VEC Model: An Empirical Examination," Econometrics 0507013, EconWPA.
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2005-04-16 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2005-04-16 (Econometric Time Series)
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