Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Contrarians and Volatility Clustering


Author Info

  • E.R. Grannan
  • G.H. Swindle
Registered author(s):


    We intoduce a new origin of volatility clustering in econonmic time series gererated by systems of interacting adaptive agents. Each agent is assigned a random subset of a fixed collection of predictors. At every time step each agent generates an action based upon its assigned predictors. Some agents are contrarians---i.e. they act at variance with the natural action suggested by a predictor. Agents that perform poorly are replaced. At each time step the signal value is generated soley by the cumulative actions of the agents on the current history of the time series. We observe numerically that under the dynamics induced by the removal of poor performers, even when contrarians are introduced at a very low density, the system evolves to a state in which contrarians comprise nearly half of the population. Furthermore, the time series generated by these systems exhibits volatility clustering. Elimination of either the contrarian behavior or the removal of poor players precludes volatility clustering.

    Download Info

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Santa Fe Institute in its series Working Papers with number 94-03-010.

    as in new window
    Date of creation: Mar 1994
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:94-03-010

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501
    Web page:
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research



    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Youssefmir, Michael & Huberman, Bernardo A., 1997. "Clustered volatility in multiagent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 101-118, January.
    2. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2005. "Time-variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach," Economics Working Papers 2005,14, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:att:wimass:9625 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.


    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


    Access and download statistics


    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:94-03-010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.