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Structural Change, Productivity and Employment in the New EU Member States

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  • Peter Havlik

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    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

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    Abstract

    This paper provides an overview of longer-term structural developments in the new EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe (NMS). It analyses structural changes in the NMS' economies and patterns of productivity catching-up both at macro level and within the individual industries. With the transformational recession of the early 1990s left behind, the majority of the NMS embarked on a path of rapid economic growth during the past decade. They have experienced an impressive productivity catching-up, both at the macroeconomic level and in the manufacturing industry in particular. Yet in most NMS the growth of labour productivity went hand in hand with declining employment, and even with considerable job losses in the manufacturing industry. The structural changes observed during the past decade brought the NMS' economies nearer to the economic structure observed in the EU-15, but the shifts of labour among individual sectors or industries themselves did not have any marked impact on aggregate productivity growth. Similar to the EU-15, the recent productivity catching-up observed in the NMS resulted overwhelmingly from across-the-board productivity improvements in individual sectors of the economy while employment shifts among sectors had only a negligible effect on aggregate productivity growth. Notwithstanding fast productivity catching-up, the estimated productivity levels indicate that NMS are in this respect still lagging considerably behind the EU 15 economies, implying a huge catching-up potential. The estimated elasticity of employment to production growth is low in all NMS; the recently observed and expected rates of economic growth will in all likelihood not be sufficient for the creation of additional jobs. The required further productivity convergence with the EU-15 may thus be in conflict with the urgently needed employment growth in the NMS; net job creation occurred in just a few services sectors and could not offset the job losses in agriculture and industry. Countries covered Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania Topics Labour and Migration; International Trade and Competitiveness; Industry

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw in its series wiiw Research Reports with number 313.

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    Length: 33 pages including 7 Tables and 11 Figures
    Date of creation: Jan 2005
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    Publication status: Published as wiiw Research Report
    Handle: RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:313

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    Related research

    Keywords: structural change; economic growth; productivity; employment; EU enlargement;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Hermine Vidovic, 2002. "The Services Sectors in Central and Eastern Europe," wiiw Research Reports 289, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Jan Fagerberg, 2000. "Technological Progress, Structural Change and Productivity Growth: A Comparative Study," Working Papers 5, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
    3. Peter Havlik, 2003. "Restructuring of manufacturing industry in the central and east european countries," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2003(1).
    4. Gabor Hunya, 2002. "Recent Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment on Growth and Restructuring in Central European Transition Countries," wiiw Research Reports 284, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Tatyana P. Soubbotina & Katherine A. Sheram, 2000. "Beyond Economic Growth : Meeting the Challenges of Global Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15789, October.
    6. Joze P. Damijan & Mark Knell & Boris Majcen & Matija Rojec, 2003. "Technology Transfer through FDI in Top-10 Transition Countries: How Important are Direct Effects, Horizontal and Vertical Spillovers?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 549, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Anita Wölfl, 2004. "Productivity Growth in Services Industries: Is There a Role for Measurement?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 66-80, Spring.
    8. Timmer, Marcel P. & Szirmai, Adam, 2000. "Productivity growth in Asian manufacturing: the structural bonus hypothesis examined," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 371-392, December.
    9. Karl Aiginger & Michael Landesmann, 2002. "Competitive Economic Performance: USA versus EU," wiiw Research Reports 291, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
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    Cited by:
    1. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Public Investment and Fiscal Performance in the New EU Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 43-71, 03.
    2. Jan Hanousek & Evzen Kocenda, 2010. "Public Investment and Fiscal Performance in New EU Member States," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1006, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Joze P. Damijan & Matija Rojec & Maja Ferjancic, 2008. "Growing export performance of transition economies: EU market access versus supply capacity factors," LICOS Discussion Papers 20208, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    4. Özlem Onaran & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2006. "The effect of FDI and foreign trade on wages in the Central and Eastern European Countries in the post-transition era: A sectoral analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp094, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
    5. Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Convergence and FDI in an enlarged EU: what can we learn from the experience of cohesion countries for the CEECS?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    6. Bellak, Christian & Leibrecht, Markus & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2008. "Labour costs and FDI flows into Central and Eastern European Countries: A survey of the literature and empirical evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 17-37, March.
    7. Maroto-Sánchez, Andrés & Cuadrado-Roura, Juan R., 2009. "Is growth of services an obstacle to productivity growth? A comparative analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 254-265, December.

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