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Determinants of Unemployment Duration in Russia

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  • Mark C. Foley
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    Abstract

    Using information contained in a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of Russian citizens, this research analyzes the determinants of unemployment duration during the early stages of economic transition. A competing-risks, discrete-time waiting model augmented to incorporate unobserved heterogeneity, is employed to analyze whether there is evidence of duration dependence in unemployment, and the role of demographic characteristics, alternative income support, and local demand conditions in explaining unemployment duration for working age individuals. Married women are found to experience significantly longer unemployment spells before exiting to a job compared to married men. Older individuals can expect to be unemployed longer than comparable younger workers. Persons with higher education do not have significantly longer unemployment spells than those with secondary or even primary education. Having children has no effect on the duration of unemployment, however they do appear to motivate women to drop out of the labor force, significantly decreasing the time spent searching for work, Local labor market demand conditions have a significant effect on duration. Individuals in regions with higher unemployment rates, all else equal, have longer unemployment spells. With respect to the reason for the entering unemployment, persons laid off from their last job have shorter durations relative to quitters. Finally, there is evidence of duration dependence in the reemployment hazard in Russia, with a period of positive duration dependence in the first 7 months, followed by a declining hazard until approximately eighteen months. These results are robust to the introduction of unobserved heterogeneity.

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    File URL: http://www.wdi.umich.edu/files/Publications/WorkingPapers/wp81.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 81.

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    Length: pages
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:1997-81

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    Cited by:
    1. Pieter Serneels, 2004. "The Nature of Unemployment in Urban Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    2. Louise Grogan & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2001. "The duration of unemployment in Russia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 549-568.
    3. Kupets, Olga, 2006. "Determinants of unemployment duration in Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 228-247, June.
    4. Pieter Serneels, 2008. "Unemployment duration, job search and labour market segmentation Evidence from urban Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Pieter Serneels, 2004. "Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed," Development and Comp Systems 0409013, EconWPA.
    6. Voicu, Alexandru, 2005. "Employment dynamics in the Romanian labor market. A Markov chain Monte Carlo approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 604-639, September.
    7. Furmanov, Kirill & Chernysheva, Irina, 2012. "Health and job search in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 26(2), pages 62-91.
    8. Linz, Susan J. & Semykina, Anastasia, 2008. "How do workers fare during transition? Perceptions of job insecurity among Russian workers, 1995-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 442-458, June.
    9. Tichit, Ariane, 2006. "The optimal speed of transition revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 349-369, June.
    10. Furmanov, Kirill, 2009. "On Measurement of the Average Unemployment Duration using Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 14(2), pages 74-99.

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