An empirical economic assessment of impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia
AbstractThis report assesses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic variables as explanatory variables. There is one main cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April. Crop production in this period depends solely on rains. Considering crop progression in three stages-germination, growing, and maturing, which require different amounts of water and temperature-the climate variables included in the model are long-term averages of the temperature and wetness index for the periods November to December, January to February, and March to April. Assuming a nonlinear relationship of farm revenue with the climate variables, quadratic terms for climate variables were also included in the model. The results indicate that most socioeconomic variables are not significant, whereas some climate variables and the corresponding quadratic variables are significant in the model. Further findings are that an increase in the November-December mean temperature and a decrease in the January-February mean rainfall have negative impacts on net farm revenue, whereas an increase in the January-February mean temperature and mean annual runoff has a positive impact.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4291.
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Climate Change; Crops&Crop Management Systems; Global Environment Facility; Common Property Resource Development; Economic Theory&Research;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2007-08-14 (Africa)
- NEP-AGR-2007-08-14 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2007-08-14 (Development)
- NEP-ENE-2007-08-14 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2007-08-14 (Environmental Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.