IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/202406.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Profitability of Rumors

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Gelsomini

    (Venice School of Management - Department of Management, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose an asset pricing framework wherein the asset price is sensitive to rumors. Unlike extant research, our paper demonstrates that it may be impossible for an amateur analyst to generate trading profits from spreading rumors. This outcome crucially depends on exogenous factors such as the probability that a given rumor may be noise rather than truthful, and the shape of the asset value distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Gelsomini, 2024. "On the Profitability of Rumors," Working Papers 2024: 06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2024:06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2024/WP_DSE_gelsomini_06_24.pdf
    File Function: First version, anno
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joel Peress, 2014. "The Media and the Diffusion of Information in Financial Markets: Evidence from Newspaper Strikes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2007-2043, October.
    2. Roland Benabou & Guy Laroque, 1992. "Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 921-958.
    3. Zhiguo He & Asaf Manela, 2016. "Information Acquisition in Rumor‐Based Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1113-1158, June.
    4. Joseph E. Engelberg & Christopher A. Parsons, 2011. "The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 67-97, February.
    5. Itay Goldstein & Alexander Guembel, 2008. "Manipulation and the Allocational Role of Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(1), pages 133-164.
    6. Kenneth R. Ahern & Denis Sosyura, 2015. "Rumor Has It: Sensationalism in Financial Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(7), pages 2050-2093.
    7. Lee, Eun Jung & Eom, Kyong Shik & Park, Kyung Suh, 2013. "Microstructure-based manipulation: Strategic behavior and performance of spoofing traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 227-252.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. Yuanzhi Luo, 2005. "Do Insiders Learn from Outsiders? Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1951-1982, August.
    10. Albert S. Kyle & S. Viswanathan, 2008. "How to Define Illegal Price Manipulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 274-279, May.
    11. Robert Battalio & Andrew Ellul & Robert Jennings, 2007. "Reputation Effects in Trading on the New York Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1243-1271, June.
    12. Ronnie Sadka & Anna Scherbina, 2007. "Analyst Disagreement, Mispricing, and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2367-2403, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Betton, Sandra & Davis, Frederick & Walker, Thomas, 2018. "Rumor rationales: The impact of message justification on article credibility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 271-287.
    2. Massa, Massimo & Manconi, Alberto & Luo, Mancy, 2017. "Much Ado About Nothing: Is the Market Affected by Political Bias?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11991, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Tsileponis, Nikolaos & Stathopoulos, Konstantinos & Walker, Martin, 2020. "Do corporate press releases drive media coverage?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    4. Liao, Rose & Wang, Xinjie & Wu, Ge, 2021. "The role of media in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2011. "Feedback Effects and the Limits to Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 17582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    7. Loughran, Tim & McDonald, Bill & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2019. "Assimilation of oil news into prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 105-118.
    8. Yanmei Sun & Xiaoting Sun & Weixing Wu, 2021. "Who detects corporate fraud under the thriving of the new media? Evidence from Chinese‐listed firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 1313-1343, April.
    9. Bibo Liu & Xuan Tian, 2022. "Do Venture Capital Investors Learn from Public Markets?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7274-7297, October.
    10. Buehlmaier, Matthias M. M. & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Financial media, price discovery, and merger arbitrage," CFS Working Paper Series 551, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Liu, Jie & Wu, Chonglin & Yuan, Lin & Liu, Jia, 2022. "Opening price manipulation and its value influences," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Zhang, Yongjie & Zhang, Zuochao & Liu, Lanbiao & Shen, Dehua, 2017. "The interaction of financial news between mass media and new media: Evidence from news on Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 535-541.
    13. Luo, Mancy, 2017. "Essays in financial intermediation and political economy," Other publications TiSEM 146f40d3-6c89-4c6d-8fea-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Chester Spatt, 2014. "Security Market Manipulation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 405-418, December.
    15. Ledgerwood Shaun D. & Carpenter Paul R., 2012. "A Framework for the Analysis of Market Manipulation," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 253-295, September.
    16. Tālis J. Putniņš, 2012. "Market Manipulation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 952-967, December.
    17. Vladimirov, Vladimir & Terovitis, Spyros, 2020. "How Financial Markets Create Superstars," CEPR Discussion Papers 15546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Jacobs, Heiko, 2020. "Hype or help? Journalists’ perceptions of mispriced stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 550-565.
    19. Umar, Tarik, 2022. "Complexity aversion when SeekingAlpha," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
    20. Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "The ordering of historical returns and the cross-section of subsequent returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    rumor profitability;

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2024:06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Geraldine Ludbrook (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.