IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/201801.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Natural Instability of Equilibrium Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry Levando

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

  • Maxim Sakharov

    (Bauman Mstu, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

We develop a theory of market fluctuations caused by strategic trade with complete information and without outside shocks. The constructed general equilibrium duopoly is a strategic market game with infinite strategies and multiple mixed strategies equilibria. First order conditions (FOC) of the game are the ill-posed problems (Hadamard, 1909), but every equilibrium mixed strategy can be only approximated. This imposes restrictions on convergence of common beliefs of players about actions of each other, existence of rational expectations and a price discovery property of the market, although the market is informationally efficient (Fama, 1970). We suggest a modification of Tikhonov regularization to construct pseudo-solutions. All endogenous variables of the model are exposed to unremovable instabilities, ‘natural instabilities', specific to parameters of a chosen approximation. Our result is also related to existence of common knowledge, sun-spot equilibrium, and noise trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry Levando & Maxim Sakharov, 2018. "Natural Instability of Equilibrium Prices," Working Papers 2018:01, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2018:01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2018/WP_DSE_levando_sakharov_01_18.pdf
    File Function: First version, anno
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julio Dávila & Piero Gottardi & Atsushi Kajii, 2007. "Local Sunspot Equilibria Reconsidered," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 31(3), pages 401-425, June.
    2. Peck, James & Shell, Karl & Spear, Stephen E., 1992. "The market game: existence and structure of equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 271-299.
    3. Robert J. Aumann, 1999. "Interactive epistemology II: Probability," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 28(3), pages 301-314.
    4. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
    5. Dmitry Levando, 2012. "A Survey Of Strategic Market Games," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(194), pages 63-106, July - Se.
    6. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard, 2008. "Designing Realized Kernels to Measure the ex post Variation of Equity Prices in the Presence of Noise," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1481-1536, November.
    7. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    8. Xiu, Dacheng, 2010. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of volatility with high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 235-250, November.
    9. Van Ness, Bonnie F & Van Ness, Robert A & Pruitt, Stephen W, 2000. "The Impact of the Reduction in Tick Increments in Major U.S. Markets on Spreads, Depth, and Volatility," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 153-167, September.
    10. Robert J. Aumann, 1999. "Interactive epistemology I: Knowledge," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 28(3), pages 263-300.
    11. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August.
    12. Satyajith Amaran & Nikolaos V. Sahinidis & Bikram Sharda & Scott J. Bury, 2016. "Simulation optimization: a review of algorithms and applications," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 240(1), pages 351-380, May.
    13. Robert A. Jarrow & Philip Protter, 2012. "A Dysfunctional Role Of High Frequency Trading In Electronic Markets," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(03), pages 1-15.
    14. Jean Jacod & Yingying Li & Xinghua Zheng, 2017. "Statistical Properties of Microstructure Noise," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 1133-1174, July.
    15. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    16. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    17. Adam Brandenburger, 2014. "The Language of Game Theory:Putting Epistemics into the Mathematics of Games," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8844, January.
    18. Jaroslav Borovička & Lars Peter Hansen & José A. Scheinkman, 2016. "Misspecified Recovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2493-2544, December.
    19. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
    20. Adam Brandenburger & Eddie Dekel, 2014. "Hierarchies of Beliefs and Common Knowledge," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Language of Game Theory Putting Epistemics into the Mathematics of Games, chapter 2, pages 31-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
    22. Steve Ross, 2015. "The Recovery Theorem," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 615-648, April.
    23. Battigalli, Pierpaolo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2002. "Strong Belief and Forward Induction Reasoning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 356-391, October.
    24. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    25. Atsushi Kajii, 1997. "On the Role of Options in Sunspot Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 977-986, July.
    26. Harris, Lawrence, 1990. "Estimation of Stock Price Variances and Serial Covariances from Discrete Observations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 291-306, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. A. Larionov V. & E. Salina S. & А. Ларионов В. & Е. Салина С., 2019. "Регулирование и оценка рисков деятельности платежных систем // Regulation and Risk Assessment of Payment Systems," Управленческие науки // Management Science, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 9(3), pages 40-55.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Clinet & Yoann Potiron, 2021. "Estimation for high-frequency data under parametric market microstructure noise," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 73(4), pages 649-669, August.
    2. Clinet, Simon & Potiron, Yoann, 2019. "Testing if the market microstructure noise is fully explained by the informational content of some variables from the limit order book," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 289-337.
    3. Li, Yingying & Xie, Shangyu & Zheng, Xinghua, 2016. "Efficient estimation of integrated volatility incorporating trading information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 33-50.
    4. Li, Z. Merrick & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Vellekoop, Michel H., 2020. "Dependent microstructure noise and integrated volatility estimation from high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 536-558.
    5. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Francis X. Diebold & Georg H. Strasser, 2008. "On the Correlation Structure of Microstructure Noise in Theory and Practice," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-038, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Andersen, Torben G. & Archakov, Ilya & Cebiroglu, Gökhan & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2022. "Local mispricing and microstructural noise: A parametric perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 510-534.
    8. Zhang, Congshan & Li, Jia & Bollerslev, Tim, 2022. "Occupation density estimation for noisy high-frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 189-211.
    9. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-1050, December.
    10. Yinfen Tang & Tao Su & Zhiyuan Zhang, 2022. "Distribution-free specification test for volatility function based on high-frequency data with microstructure noise," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(8), pages 977-1022, November.
    11. Chaker, Selma, 2017. "On high frequency estimation of the frictionless price: The use of observed liquidity variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 127-143.
    12. Flannery, Mark J. & Kwan, Simon H. & Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah, 2013. "The 2007–2009 financial crisis and bank opaqueness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-84.
    13. Li, M. Z. & Linton, O., 2021. "Robust Estimation of Integrated and Spot Volatility," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2115, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    14. PASCUAL, Roberto & VEREDAS, David, 2006. "Does the open limit order book matter in explaining long run volatility ?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006110, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    15. G. Wuyts, 2007. "Stock Market Liquidity.Determinants and Implications," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(2), pages 279-316.
    16. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2011. "Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-18, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    18. Dekel, Eddie & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2015. "Epistemic Game Theory," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
    19. Ikeda, Shin S., 2019. "Illiquidity in the Japan electric power exchange," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 16-39.
    20. Li, Yingying & Zhang, Zhiyuan & Li, Yichu, 2018. "A unified approach to volatility estimation in the presence of both rounding and random market microstructure noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 187-222.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic market games; ill-posed problems; common knowledge; rational expectations; efficient market; price fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D59 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Other
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2018:01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Geraldine Ludbrook (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.