Alternative Phillips Curves Models with Endogenous Real-Time Expectations
AbstractOriginally presented as an empirical regularity, a variety of microeconomic derivations of the Phillips tradeoff between inflation and real output have been developed. Since these new Phillips curve models are expressed in terms of unobserved variables and expectations, we develop estimates of these unobservables using a state space characterization of the short-run political-economic equilibrium. This method is appropriate because it yields recursive forecasts based on contemporaneous information, and because we apply it to a real-time data set in order to accurately measure available information. Although none of the new Phillips curve tested are completely adequate, we find that Calvo’s sticky price formulation provides the best fit for US data. It is inadequate because the estimate coefficient for the driving variable (either the output gap or the marginal cost) is essentially zero
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Utah, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah with number 2010_03.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
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new Phillips curve; microfoundations; real-time data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-02-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-02-05 (Macroeconomics)
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