EMU membership and business cycle phases in Europe: a Markov switching VAR analysis
AbstractMost empirical applications of the OCA approach based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for the credibility aspects that play an important role in deciding to join the EMU from the EMS or the EMS-BIS. In this paper, we tackle this problem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series ULB Institutional Repository with number 2013/10441.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in: Journal of international economic integration (2003) v.18 n° 1,p.214-242
Other versions of this item:
- Beine, Michel & Candelon, Bertrand, 2003. "EMU Membership and Business Cycle Phases in Europe: Markov-Switching VAR Analysis," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 18, pages 214-242.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
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- George S. Tavlas, 2004. "Benefits and Costs of Entering the Eurozone," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 89-106, Spring/Su.
- Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
- Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.
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