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EMU membership and business cycle phases in Europe: a Markov switching VAR analysis

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  • Michel Beine
  • Bertrand Candelon
  • Khalid Sekkat

Abstract

Most empirical applications of the OCA approach based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for the credibility aspects that play an important role in deciding to join the EMU from the EMS or the EMS-BIS. In this paper, we tackle this problem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series ULB Institutional Repository with number 2013/10441.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in: Journal of international economic integration (2003) v.18 n° 1,p.214-242
Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/10441

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Cited by:
  1. George S. Tavlas, 2004. "Benefits and Costs of Entering the Eurozone," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 89-106, Spring/Su.
  2. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
  3. Michael Artis, 2003. "Is there a European Business Cycle?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1053, CESifo Group Munich.

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