Equilibrium Pricing and Trading Volume under Preference Uncertainty
AbstractInformation collection, processing and dissemination financial institutions is challenging. This can delay the observation by traders of the exact capital charges and constraints of their institution. During this delay, traders face preference uncertainty. In this context, we study optimal trading strategies and equilibrium prices in a continuous centralized market. We focus on liquidity shocks, during which preference uncertainty is likely to matter most. Preference uncertainty generates allocative ineficiency, but need not reduce prices. Traders progressively learning about the preferences of their institution conduct round-trip trades, which generate excess volume relative to the frictionless market. In a cross section of liquidity shocks, the initial price drop is positively correlated with total trading volume. Across traders, the number of round-trips is negatively correlated with trading profits and average inventory.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) in its series TSE Working Papers with number 13-422.
Date of creation: 16 Jul 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in The Review of Economic Studies, 2014.
Other versions of this item:
- Biais, Bruno & Hombert, Johan & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2013. "Equilibrium Pricing and Trading Volume under Preference Uncertainty," IDEI Working Papers 787, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Dec 2013.
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
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- Peter Kondor & Ana Babus, 2013.
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- Ana Babus & Péter Kondor, 2012. "Trading and Information Diffusion in Over-the-Counter Markets," CEU Working Papers 2012_19, Department of Economics, Central European University, revised 09 Dec 2012.
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