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Is a bubble inflating on Poland’s housing market?

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Czerniak
  • Stefan Kawalec

Abstract

The year 2019 brought double-digit growth in Polish housing prices, for both new and existing homes. In some cities, real prices for residential real estate have reached the highest levels in history, even higher than at the peak of the boom in 2008. As a result, some are saying that there is a growing price bubble. But thus far no research has been produced that would comprehensively verify this hypothesis on the basis of data from 2006-2019. This work aims to fill that gap. This is exceptionally important, because assessing the likelihood that a housing price bubble is emerging is key for the conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy in Poland. Because if we’re really dealing with growth in macroeconomic imbalances, then taking pre-emptive action to limit further price growth and prepare the economy (including the financial sector) for a potential collapse in housing prices is essential for limiting fluctuations in growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Czerniak & Stefan Kawalec, 2020. "Is a bubble inflating on Poland’s housing market?," mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings 0164, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:mbanks:0164
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    File URL: https://www.case-research.eu/files/?id_plik=6353
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Janusz Sobieraj & Dominik Metelski, 2021. "Testing Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance: Evidence from Different Polish Cities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-29, September.
    2. Marek Bryx & Janusz Sobieraj & Dominik Metelski & Izabela Rudzka, 2021. "Buying vs. Renting a Home in View of Young Adults in Poland," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-31, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate market; price bubble; flipping; housing investments; crowdfunding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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