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Scenarios for the Agricultural Sector in South and East Mediterranean Countries by 2030

Author

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  • Saad Belghazi

Abstract

The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven Mediterranean countries (Med 11), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the Med 11 agricultural sector with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU and productivity dynamics and their determinants. Secondly, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the agriculture sector of Med 11: animal products, fruits and vegetables, sugar and edible oil, cereals and fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean One global Player, the Euro Mediterranean Area under threat and the EU and Med 11 as Regional Player.

Suggested Citation

  • Saad Belghazi, 2012. "Scenarios for the Agricultural Sector in South and East Mediterranean Countries by 2030," CASE Network Reports 0109, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0109
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    File URL: https://case-research.eu/sites/default/files/publications/CNR_2012_109.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Marek Dabrowski & Luc DeWulf, 2013. "Economic Development, Trade and Investment in the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean Region," CASE Network Reports 0111, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture; Prospective; East and South Mediterranean; Agricultural Trade and Incentives Policy; Growth; Productivity; Structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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