Opinion Formation in Business Surveys: Empirical Evidence from German Micro Data
AbstractThe article contributes to a broader understanding of how firms form its opinion in regular business surveys as we identify determinants of this process. In a large micro panel data set from the Ifo Business Cycle Test in Germany we employ the log-probability model to investigate relationships among categorical variables. Panel causality tests do not reveal strictly exogenous variables in the questionnaire. Ordered random effects probit panel estimations identify macroeconomic determinants of current situation and expectations. Furthermore we intendify some herding effects in the micro data
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 261.
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
expectation formation; log-linear models; panel data; ifo micro data;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
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