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Macroeconomic Effects Of Sectoral Shocks In Us, Uk And Germany: A Bvar-Garch-M Approach

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  • Gianluigi Pelloni

    (Faculty of Political Science - University of Pisa)

  • Wolfgang Polasek

    (University of Basel)

Abstract

In this article a VAR-GARCH-M model for aggregate employment and employment shares is developed in order to explore the macroeconomic effects of sectoral shocks. Using US, UK and German quarterly data sets, the model is estimated and tested against alternative specifications. Three main issues are investigated: if volatities'shocks are significantly relevant; how much of the variation of aggregate employment growth is accounted for by reallocation shocks; how much of aggregate volatility innovation is explained by sectoral components. The analysis is carried out in a fully fledged Bayesian fashion in all its aspects: estimation, model selection and innovation accounting. In particular, model selection is carried out using Bayes factors which are exactly estimated or numerically approximated according to the nature of the proposed prior distribution. The model is estimated using a MCMC approach. The results suggest that the VAR-GARCH-M model has to be preferred to the alternative specifications. The GARCH-M component is highly "significant" thus suggesting both the presence of volatility clustering and the feedback of volatilities on aggregate employment and sectoral shares growth rates. The innovation analysis provides strong support for sectoral shocks as a triggering force of aggregate employment fluctuations. In all three countries between 45% and 55% of aggregate employment variation is accounted for by sectoral innovations. Furthermore, a fairly large amount of interaction occurs across sectors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 with number 253.

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Date of creation: 05 Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf0:253

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Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
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Cited by:
  1. T. Panagiotidis & G. Pelloni & W. Polasek, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reallocation Shocks: A Generalised Impulse Reponse Function Analysis for Three European Countries," Working Papers 505, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  2. Theodore Panagiotidis & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2005. "Non-Linearity in the Canadian and US Labour Market: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence from a battery of tests," Discussion Paper Series 2005_8, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Aug 2005.
  3. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2003. "Testing for non-linearity in labour markets: the case of Germany and the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 275-286, April.
  4. Iglesias, Emma M. & Phillips, Garry D. A., 2003. "Another look about the evolution of the risk premium: a VAR-GARCH-M model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 777-789, July.
  5. Pelloni, Gianluigi & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Reallocation Shock: A Generalished Impulse Response Function Analysis for Three European Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 18, pages 794-816.

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