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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Asia and the Pacific

Author

Listed:
  • Ambaw, Dessie

    (University of South Australia)

  • Pundit, Madhavi

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Ramayandi, Arief

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Sim, Nicholas

    (Singapore University of Social Sciences)

Abstract

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing economies. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a reduction in economic growth, exports and export diversification, and an increased risk of currency crises and political instability. Using quarterly data for 22 sample economies from 1990 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of RER misalignment on business cycles in Asia and the Pacific by employing a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) inflation, output gap, short-term interest rate, and RER misalignment. We find that RER overvaluation may lead to a reduction in CPI inflation and short-term interest rate. We also find that Asia and the Pacific is highly heterogeneous wherein the output gaps of some economies, particularly those in Southeast Asia, are more susceptible to RER misalignment shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambaw, Dessie & Pundit, Madhavi & Ramayandi, Arief & Sim, Nicholas, 2022. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Asia and the Pacific," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 651, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0651
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate misalignment; business cycle fluctuations;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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