IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbewp/0568.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrarini, Benno

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper assesses the accuracy of Asian Development Outlook growth and inflation forecasts for 43 Asian economies from 2007 to 2016, against the benchmark of World Economic Outlook projections by the International Monetary Fund. They are found to overlap quite closely, notwithstanding much heterogeneity across countries and years. Forecast accuracy sharpens over time as additional data and evidence become available and get incorporated during quarterly revisions. However, errors widen during crisis years as forecasters struggle to reflect such events in their projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrarini, Benno, 2019. "Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 568, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/480311/ewp-568-ado-forecast-accuracy-2007-2016.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian Development Bank; Asian Development Outlook; International Monetary Fund; macroeconomic forecasts; World Economic Outlook;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Orlee Velarde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eradbph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.